Grab a cuppa and sit down with these articles. (You may also want to subscribe to their authors.)
From Substack, UK author Martyn Eeles current Health VC newsletter, “The Strategic Clarity Problem”, advises founders of early-stage companies that doing more can result in less–financing. Too much activity in too many directions leads to confusion on investors’ parts. Paradoxically, it doesn’t enhance “potential” but detracts. It reads to investors, especially now, as lack of priorities and not strategic. Mr. Eeles recommends focus, focus, focus. Choose a strategy and stick with it. It doesn’t mean that a founder cannot show multiple future paths, just that the main path has to carry the company forward. (Sounds like good marketing!)
For instance, how you present your direction is vital in making activity sound focused and strategic. FTA:
A founder who says, “There are many use cases,” may sound ambitious. A founder who says, “There are many possible use cases, but this one is the wedge because it creates the clearest buyer urgency,” sounds more investable.
A founder who says, “We have lots of partnership conversations,” may sound active. A founder who says, “These two partnerships matter because they reduce implementation risk and create access to the customer segment we are prioritising,” sounds strategic.
The short (non-subscriber) version has a wealth of information for both founders and funders, complete with a nifty infographic that depicts nearly the entire article. but truncates at ‘The Choices Investors Want To See”. This Editor would recommend the annual €60 subscription if you’re in the business. Mr. Eeles is managing partner at Clarma Capital, a European life sciences venture fund.
Our friend Sergei Polevikov writing in his Substack AI Health Uncut returns to the General Catalyst-powered Commure in Commure’s Long History of Red Flags. Even though General Catalyst doesn’t want him to. Yes, the flags still flap around the gaggle of health tech companies financed by General Catalyst (GC). Commure itself is an agglomeration of GC companies: Athelas, Augmedix, RxHealth, and Memora Health. Commure originally had one marketable product, Strongline, a safety and duress badging/tracking system, three years ago before GC’s consolidation moves. What is questionable about Commure has now surfaced in STAT News +’ investigation (paywalled). From pricing dependent on recommendations to products that don’t work until they’re modified at the client if they eventually do work, to referral programs that are way too close to violating the Anti-Kickback Statute…Commure has it all on the Shady Side of the Street. GC keeps shoveling money in because they can, too.
And once again, thinking the unthinkable, is Ed Zitron. Here he imagines the demise of OpenAI and reads the tea leaves. He notes:
- the deceleration of revenue when it needs to accelerate (see below)
- the COO and CRO left after less than a year on the job, likely walking away from generous stock options/awards–now, who does this?
- it’s backed away from its IPO and likely will be beaten to it by Anthropic (Claude)
- the economics are terrifying. OpenAI lost $20.9 billion in 2025 on $13.07 billion in revenue
- it needs to meet compute obligations and for that needs $800 billion in cash
- it needs to raise $100-200 billion annually just to survive
In short, it has to become the most successful company since Caesar Crossed The Rubicon–or it croaks. Expires. Meets the Devil of Demise and the Devil wins.
The consequences will be severe. FTA:
To not actively and meaningfully discuss the potential for OpenAI to collapse is actively irresponsible. To act like there are not significant, existential problems with this company’s economics is to intentionally avoid reality, and whoever is on the receiving end of said ignorance deserves better, be they an investor reading your analyst note or a reader burdened with incomplete journalism.
What follows may be an Enron-Lehman Brothers hybrid, one that leaves unbelievable destruction in its wake, an avoidable systemic risk empowered and enabled by a kneecapped media industry and sell-side analysts incapable of seeing further than two quarters in the future.
The time to stop this? Long past.
Zitron backs everything up with hard numbers laced with cross-references. It’s dense and needs close attention. Depending on your view, you’ll choose a gallon of coffee, a fifth of bourbon, or a bottle of wine. What Happens If OpenAI Dies?
Another argument, shorter, and similar, is made by Gary Marcus in his Substack newsletter (free access), Marcus on AI, BREAKING: OpenAI’s unraveling has begun. Again, just as it was scheduled for its IPO and racing its main competitor.
It contains two citations from the Wall Street Journal writers who cover OpenAI, Berber Jin and Corrie Dribusch:
- “The company grew revenue by just 18% to $6.7 billion from q1 to q2, while its losses sank further into the red”
- Losses grew from Q1 to Q2 to $3 billion to $12.3 billion, while it added only $1 billion (to $6.7 billion)
Nvidia is in full CYA mode, given its exposure to OpenAI. Can Oracle be far behind?
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