Chutes & Ladders, Oracle Edition: Surprise! Project Jupiter data center build overages, “social costs” multiply. Pentagon inks $7B, 10 year deal for software.

The Unexpected in the Terra Incognita of data centers whip up The Perfect Pricey Storm for Oracle. Oracle knows how to build software, not huge data center buildings. Buildings have messy things like power supply, coolant, and permitting at the local and state levels. There is also The Unexpected that any experienced builder will factor in even when unknown, whether it’s overruns for wiring, racks, chips, out of spec cement, etc., that delay Opening Revenue Day. The Unexpected increasingly includes what is termed “social costs” that start around genuine concerns such as power draw, transmission lines, water usage, disruptions, even heat foci (a Cornell Tech study found a 10 degree rise on current data centers). Many local “interests” use these tentpoles to support the classic tactics of dissuade, delay, and (ramping up) the difficulty. When the pockets like Oracle’s aren’t deep and labeled ‘debt’, this hurts.

In the New Mexico west bordering Texas, where it’s underpopulated and land is cheap, Oracle’s 1,400-acre, 2+ gigawatt Project Jupiter super data center build for OpenAI is hitting roadblocks, primarily around power. The original plan to power it with gas from its own natural gas plants hit environmental potholes. Then Oracle switched to natural gas fuel cells from Bloom Energy. They use little water, pollute less and are reasonable in carbon emissions. But the cost? $8 billion, a few billion more than the gas plants. They also have other sticky requirements; to not degrade, the cells must continuously run, which scuppers Oracle’s plan to switch off to far cheaper solar on sunny days. TTA 7 May

New Mexico and to a lesser degree west Texas have rising environmental concerns. New Mexico in particular is generally hostile to big business and fossil fuels. The natural gas pipeline needed to supply the cells that runs through New Mexico is on its second rejection by the New Mexico Environment Department. The next hearing isn’t till 19 October. The cherry on this cake? The state Attorney General is investigating complaints from local residents that their names were used fraudulently in support of said fuel cells. The greenhouse gas emissions are also claimed by environmental groups to be equivalent to New Mexico’s two largest cities, a claim that evades logic for Albuquerque alone. These groups now are pushing for a data center moratorium, a growing national cause that ignores that the data center is partly built, the water being used is non-potable from outside the area, and that the builder, Oracle, is working hard to respond to critics in the local areas by plowing money into local concerns.

Oracle isn’t the only one, but the one with the least resources. Oracle, Microsoft and OpenAI projects in Wisconsin are having costly difficulties with power authorities on building transmission lines and cost sharing. This may add another overrun of $100 million to Oracle/OpenAI’s Port Washington, Wisconsin data center. Oracle’s low credit rating also hurts them, where Wisconsin’s state power regulator is requiring financial guarantees in cash or lines of credit in case the project fails. This will cost Oracle $100 million–annually. In Texas, Big AI such as Meta and Google are having more success in partnering with local power utilities in building permanent infrastructure and renewable sourcing, including closed water systems to prevent toxic wastewater runoff into land and local water systems.

So why is Oracle making a chancy bet at the Data Center Infrastructure Landlord Table? Concluding from The Information: “even though the cost to build and power a gigawatt of AI is bordering on at least $60 billion, Nvidia servers powered by its Grace Blackwell chips, renting out at $3.50 an hour, could generate around $12 billion to $13 billion a year, including operating costs.” Your Editor reads this simply as a 4-5 year payback. However, that statement rests on a mountain of assumptions–that hourly rental costs remain high, that build costs remain somewhat stable or lower, that land and construction stay relatively cost static, that the small coterie of AI customers keep paying their bills, and that local groups do not succeed, as they seem to be doing, in increasing costs, demanding moratoria, and delaying online dates.

There are many reasons why Oracle’s bonds are hovering just above ‘junk’, as Mr. Market keeps reminding us. Computing UK. Add to that list that data center cost assumptions have gone spectacularly sideways and the expectations within Oracle didn’t account for (drum roll) The Unexpected.

Oracle did have some very good news last week from the Federal Government for its first Ladder in awhile. The Department of War (a/k/a Department of Defense) is contracting with Oracle for software in a deal that could be worth up to $7 billion over ten years. The exact contract has a base value of $3.31 billion for the first five years of the agreement and a total value of $6.99 billion if the additional option years are exercised.

The DoW Enterprise Software Initiative (ESI) puts contracting into a centralized framework to expedite procurement, versus the typical individual procurement process by separate agencies. The DoW ESI covers procurement for intelligence agencies and the Coast Guard. According to CNBC, “The contract covers the use of Oracle software in on-premises data centers for branches of the military, the U.S. intelligence community and the Coast Guard, according to a statement. The Central Intelligence Agency was Oracle’s first customer. A five-year base period for the contract includes perpetual and subscription-based software licenses, maintenance and consulting, according to one description.” DoW in its own release expects savings of $441 million when compared to the cost of buying Oracle products separately. (And come on, fellow writers. It’s the Department of War at the top of the release, not the Department of Defense, whatever arguments including historical you may have about it.) Oracle release, Federal News Network

TTA’s Even Hotter July #2: why data center financing is like subprime mortgates and SPACs, OpenAI’s model escapes its sandbox and attacks, Precision’s BCI wins tests, Tempus buys Personalis for $1.5B, more!

 

24-27 July 2026

Even though summer storms replete with tornados have cleared out the northeast US heat wave, elsewhere it’s roasting and the summertime news doldrums continue. The most significant news isn’t healthcare specific–it’s that OpenAI’s agentic AI in test jumped out of its sandbox, got into the internet, and attacked an AI model repository. Another BCI, Precision, is notching some clinical test wins in non-invasive thought control. Clover Health has a hopefully small data breach.

But the Big Read this week is another cautionary tale from Ed Zitron, who takes apart AI data center financing by likening it to the 2008 and prior subprime mortgate financing. Your Editor takes it further to the 2020-22 SPAC boom that left nearly all companies and billions in the dust.

Please feel free to comment on the articles and pass along this Alert. Let me know if this is worth it to you! Also check out my personal page on Substack.

This week’s Must Read: the dangerous financing of AI data center buildouts–and how they resemble the 2020 health tech boom

Chutes & Ladders: Data breach clouts Clover, OpenAI agent escapes sandbox to attack Hugging Face, Precision’s surface BCI achieves thought control, Tempus AI $1.5B Personalis buy, Karoo Health’s $16.2M Series A

Last week’s headlines

News roundup: Withings Medical Group service launches, MPs urge cancellation of NHS/Palantir FDP contract, IKS closes TruBridge buy for $557M, ATA comments on prelim CMS PFS for telehealth, Philips’ AI-powered…toothbrush

A gloomy view on Oracle going forward: debt, cash flow, and dependence on OpenAI

Recent Headlines and Must Reads

Chutes & Ladders: Done Global principals sentenced on Adderall fraud, Oracle E-Biz Suite hacked, OpenAI’s 5% offer to US government, Meta considers cloud AI, Pearl’s $110M raise

Midjourney Medical audaciously promises a revolution in whole-body scanning, powered by Butterfly Network chips. Can the reality ever match the hype?

Vinegary Must Reads This Week: Silicon Valley’s ‘Cargo Culture’; the clinical query tool explosion between OpenEvidence and general AI

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Support not only a publication but also a well-informed international community.

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Help Spread the News

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Donna Cusano, Editor In Chief
donna.cusano@telecareaware.com

Telehealth & Telecare Aware – covering news on latest developments in telecare, telehealth and eHealth, worldwide.

This week’s Must Read: the dangerous financing of AI data center buildouts–and how they resemble the 2020 health tech boom

For this week’s Must Read–now that we are past World Cup and mostly past America250–here’s another bracing essay from Ed Zitron’s Where’s Your Ed At in The Subprime Data Center Crisis. Get a couple of cuppas and some time–it’s dense.

Mr. Zitron compares how data centers are financed today to the pre-2008 boom in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) that insured mortgage bonds. CDOs, by raising money around these bonds near-endlessly, subsidized an artificial boom in housing demand stimulated by  historically low interest rates. Those of us around (nearly all our Readers) know how badly that wound up in 2008, with the circular grift crash taking down Lehman Brothers and other financial institutions and putting us into a four-year recession. It also made financing nearly unavailable for health tech companies just getting out of their Series A or B.

CDOs aren’t financing data centers, but Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) are. The SPV raises debt financing for a data center and sells it to institutional investors, asset managers or banks. The SPV makes the payments to the contractors and suppliers such as Nvidia for chips. How they pay interest on the debt is via a special account. Finally, when the data center starts to generate revenue, the SPV uses those funds to first pay for the operating expenses of the data center, then creditors (based on their seniority in the debt), then whatever is left goes to the holding company, such as CoreWeave. It reveals how companies like Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are financing their data center builds. (It does appear on this Editor’s reading that Oracle, by directly taking on debt, is taking a different route.)

It’s a complicated scenario. The analogy he draws is that the financing for data centers is equivalent to the subprime mortgages of 2008. It’s  compounded by the apparent fact that capacity being built in the pipeline far outstrips demand by a factor of 15, based on an industry report cited by Mr. Zitron. In addition, the demand is not from profitable companies. He cites that “70% to 90% of that demand is from Anthropic and OpenAI’s unprofitable services.”

It also assumes three factors govern AI expansion in a grab for world savings looking for safe bets:

  1. AI data center demand is infinite and all compute will be used.
  2. AI data centers all have “locked-in customer demand.”
  3. That these are “safe” investments, backed by the richest companies in the world.

Exactly what demand is out there? Companies and countries are guessing and making huge financial bets. Mr. Zitron basically calls it an AI bubble inflated by AI companies and abetted by the media because no one is accurately measuring the demand versus capacity.

It’s a scenario that screams ‘red flags’ and ‘Danger, Will Robinson’.

Read, you decide. 

But the scenario Mr. Zitron outlined raised the goose pimples on this Editor’s neck.

Those of us in healthcare have been to this rodeo before. And the bronco riders were all taken to the ER. Or the morgue.

If the term SPV sounds a little familiar to Readers, to this Editor, the term and the structure strongly resemble Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) which for a time in 2020-2022 were the It Girl of getting around the typical IPO process for many a health tech company, such as Babylon Health. Admittedly, SPACs and SPVs work differently. SPACs raised money from investors, IPO’d themselves to raise more money, and then in an ‘blank check’ transaction, sometimes with additional investment, acquired a private company, thus taking it public. All in 3-6 months! Simple, right? None of the muss and fuss, due diligence, or SEC scrutiny of an IPO. And as a device, it’s still being used.

Yet look at the outcome in healthcare. Nearly all of the healthcare SPACs ‘cracked’ after 2023 with stock values cratering within months or a year, Hims being one of the very few exceptions and maybe the only one. 30% went bankrupt. 26% were acquired well below their IPO price. And the remainder survive, some having flirted with the Devil of Demise, all below their IPO and valuation. For a tidy summary of the rolling SPAC collapse, read TTA 10 April 2025 and 26 June 2024

But what CDOs, the current AI bubble, and the 2020-2022 health tech/telehealth bubble have in common is a complicated way of financing designed to skirt regulations and proper market analysis, coupled with a healthy dose of illusions. Each bubble is based on a set of assumptions that envisioned endless geometric growth and future profitability, coupled with a “desire to believe” that negated logic and the entry of outright fraud. In 2020, we had a real lack of accurately gauging demand for health tech and telehealth services, especially in direct-to-consumer and telementalhealth services. The healthcare SPAC bubble also misread the viability of companies and their business models, many of which had more in the realm of hopes and founder dreams than validity in the marketplace. SPACs evaded scrutiny and created great headlines for this Editor. It was endless. Apprehensions were brushed away. It was also unsettling to this Editor who had a very small role in a long-ago iteration of a financing and business boom/bust–airline deregulation–at two airlines.

When the 2023 crash came, wiping out billions in investment, it was pretty much confined to healthcare and health tech. It’s still being worked through in the consolidation of health tech (not all bad and to be expected), in bankruptcy court (23andMe), and the outright frauds in Federal courts (Done Global). To quote myself from June 2024: The investment scene in health tech and AI strongly resembles the Wild West days of airlines post-deregulation 30 years ago. Investor money in, now fleeing for the exits, whether the bankruptcy court or passing the hot potato to others with money.

AI, of course, dwarfs the SPAC-driven health tech boom by a 1000X factor. And has the capacity to take down a world economy.

TTA’s Even Hotter July: a gloomy view on Oracle’s future, Withings gets into medical care, IKS closes TruBridge buy, Palantir/FPS contract in jeopardy, PFS’ draft telehealth provisions, more!

 

16-20 July 2026

Back into summertime doldrums with a little less news than usual. Oracle continues to depress Mr. Market with its debt load and lack of cash on hand in its ambitious transformation to an AI infrastructure landlord–but still no word about whether it can sell its EHR. But Withings makes a truly gutsy move by entering the provider fray with a CMS initiative supplementing Medicare primary care providers. IKS closes its big buy of TruBridge for $557 million in another consolidation move. NHS’ big patient database move in jeopardy if Palantir is removed. And debate on the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule and telehealth starts anew.

Please feel free to comment on the articles and pass along this Alert. Let me know if this is worth it to you! Also check out my personal page on Substack.

News roundup: Withings Medical Group service launches, MPs urge cancellation of NHS/Palantir FDP contract, IKS closes TruBridge buy for $557M, ATA comments on prelim CMS PFS for telehealth, Philips’ AI-powered…toothbrush

A gloomy view on Oracle going forward: debt, cash flow, and dependence on OpenAI

Recent Headlines, from 23andMe, to Done being Done, to Midjourney Medical scanning, to Cargo Culture

News roundup: 23andMe settles with data breach victims for $46.75M, Neuralink implants first Canadian ALS patient, Resmed selling MatrixCare EHR for $490M, Teladoc now preferred telehealth provider for NBA players

Chutes & Ladders: Done Global principals sentenced on Adderall fraud, Oracle E-Biz Suite hacked, OpenAI’s 5% offer to US government, Meta considers cloud AI, Pearl’s $110M raise

Midjourney Medical audaciously promises a revolution in whole-body scanning, powered by Butterfly Network chips. Can the reality ever match the hype?

Vinegary Must Reads This Week: Silicon Valley’s ‘Cargo Culture’; the clinical query tool explosion between OpenEvidence and general AI

Amazon’s One Medical Seniors hacked by ShinyHunters, issues “final warning” on 8.8 TB of patient data

Perspectives: The most aggressive AI adoption in healthcare is happening off the books

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Support not only a publication but also a well-informed international community.

Contact Editor Donna for more information.

Help Spread the News

Please tell your colleagues about this free news service and, if you have relevant information to share with the rest of the world, please let me know!

Donna Cusano, Editor In Chief
donna.cusano@telecareaware.com

Telehealth & Telecare Aware – covering news on latest developments in telecare, telehealth and eHealth, worldwide.

A gloomy view on Oracle going forward: debt, cash flow, and dependence on OpenAI

Oracle is beginning to turn into one of those cautionary case studies. And that’s not good news for healthcare. From their faltering EHR to the hacking of their software, Oracle’s news hasn’t been cheerful. While still profitable in the quarterly reports, the debt load and its obligations in their chosen wrenching changeover from a software developer/seller to an AI infrastructure landlord have been followed by speculation. The latest speculation from June is selling their EHR business [TTA 2 June]–if they can find a buyer. The EHR is a distant second to Epic in every metric [TTA 27 May] and Oracle has an immense obligation to the Federal Government for both the Military Health System (MHS) and VA’s EHR Modernization that won’t complete projected rollout until 2031.

A recent analysis published in Seeking Alpha (may require free account, PDF here) will give one further pause.

The debt load is a crusher. There’s anywhere from $72 to $100 billion in debt on Oracle’s books, and that preceded the PIMCO financing of $16.3 billion that included equity. Their credit rating from major raters is one step above junk: BBB-negative from S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s Baa2 Negative outlook. [TTA 7 May] Oracle has already projected it needs more: an additional $40 billion in fiscal 2027 through a mix of debt and equity.

Net debt is soaring. Oracle ended FY 2026 with net debt of $97.6 billion. This represents a ~20% increase versus the $81.4 billion of FY 2025. Looking forward, this analyst is projecting that the net debt by end of FY 2027 will be in the range of ~$120 billion.

There’s another little problem called cash flow. Years of positive free cash flow, even during the pandemic recession, turned sour in their FY 26 to a negative $23.7 billion. The analysis states that Oracle is now heavily dependent on external cash–debt–to finance its AI infrastructure building. S&P also noted that capital expenditure has been geometrically increasing: $6.9 billion (2024), $21.1 billion (2025) and $55.7 billion (2026). The guidance for fiscal 2027? Between $90 and $95 billion. That is over a 70% increase. Cash flow clearly can’t pay down the debt they already have, a fact that banks factored in to cut off the lending spigot.

Its performance obligations are also crushing. $553 billion has been reported for OpenAI alone [TTA 7 May].  This article reports remaining performance obligations of $638 billion, about half of which is for OpenAI. Despite the disparity in numbers (perhaps completed obligations?), in this analyst’s view, something happens to OpenAI–for instance, a pullback in the confidence of markets to finance their aggressive expansion (and, this Editor would add, an IPO)–Oracle would be hit hard. To paraphrase an overworked analogy, if OpenAI stumbles and sprains its ankle, Oracle would break both legs.

But..but…isn’t demand supposed to be increasing, infinitely?  Increased demand is critical to continued financing. Yet there are leading indicators that demand is leveling off. Corporations are increasingly limiting internal use of AI by employees to tamp down soaring token usage costs and control budgets. These companies have also found that AI tools often do not work as well in replacing humans as they were cracked up to be. And now seemingly every software offering is ‘powered by AI’. The newness is wearing off.

The chip cycle is speeding up–not good news for AI infrastructure builders.  Nvidia is now in full production of its Vera Rubin chip, which is dramatically faster than the previous generation Blackwell chip. Our March reporting picked up that Oracle had forward commitments with Nvidia to use the older Blackwell chip for the OpenAI data centers, and OpenAI wasn’t happy about that. It’s not a simple matter of going to Nvidia and returning old chips and getting new ones–that isn’t done. Vera Rubin is also twice as expensive on a per-rack basis than Blackwell–$7.8 million versus $4 million. Add to this the long taffy pull of building (online is 12-18 months minimum), power, water, and labor costs…it adds up, as any builder will tell you.

Given the above factors, it shouldn’t be any surprise that Oracle stock is down 30% since last December and continues to decline.

Extra: The article also contains a short history of financial cycles. There are parallels drawn comparing the AI boom we are in to similar technology-driven boom and bust cycles, dating back to the building of canals in the 1700s, railways in the 1800s, and electrification in the early 1900s.  

Editor’s note: Any analysis of Oracle’s financial health is based on this article, previous articles, multiple sources, and Oracle’s disclosures. Our interest is primarily in the well-being of Oracle Health and the markets it serves. We do not engage in stock picking and none of the above should be construed as financial advice.

Chutes, and chutes: Microsoft’s $3B Oracle cloud leasing deal goes sideways, Defense Health Agency to replace Leidos as system integrator for MHS’ EHR, Centene offering voluntary buyouts to most employees

While SpaceX has debuted to well over a $2.3 trillion (that’s with a T) market cap, it seems that even giant companies are still facing expensive headwinds.

The Microsoft-Oracle cloud deal has gone sideways, if not entirely off. Microsoft’s goal was to lease space on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) to expand its capacity and to move some of its workloads there. Microsoft Azure would be prioritized for customers. The problem was that Oracle’s public cloud infrastructure does not have the Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program (FedRAMP) security framework that Microsoft needed for some of these workloads, and Oracle was not willing to add it. OCI does have a FedRAMP framework for its Federal Government work. A source for the Business Insider article said that it was potentially worth up to $3 billion. BI’s source within Oracle said that adding FedRAMP to the public OCI would be a “massive engineering lift”.

To Reuters and to Business Insider, an Oracle spokesperson swiftly responded that the report was “inaccurate” but did not specify the inaccuracies, and that the two companies continue to have “a  tremendously collaborative and fruitful partnership.”–a statement which can be read as a non-denial.

It highlights a shortage of computing capacity in cloud services, where Microsoft and other companies are scratching for more data center bandwidth, and turning to competitors to lease. Microsoft already leases capacity from Amazon for its GitHub code development business and is searching for more. Amazon and Google’s public clouds have FedRAMP and seem like logical alternatives if they have spare capacity. Google alone signed a $920 million per month deal with SpaceX for AI compute capacity that extends from October 2026 to June 2029. SpaceX also has a similar deal with Anthropic.

Oracle could certainly have used the cash flow.

The Defense Health Agency (DHA) will be transitioning away from Leidos as the lead systems integrator for the Military Health System (MHS) EHR and related systems by July 2027.  MHS GENESIS originated from the 2015 EHR contract award to the Leidos Partnership for Defense Health, with Cerner (now Oracle Health) for the EHR and Accenture as members. Leidos served as the lead systems integrator to onboard all the parts of the entire MHS GENESIS system, which grew to include Henry Schein for dental records, Philips North America for tele-critical care, Amwell for telehealth, and Solventum Health Information Systems (formerly 3M) for clinical documentation and coding.

Now that it is fully implemented, DHA will take over the integration role, transitioning Philips and Amwell away from Leidos by the end of this July, Oracle Health by November, and both Schein and Solventum by July 2027. Reasons cited on DHA’s SAM.gov notice were “reduced cost transparency, duplicative layers of management and administration, limited government visibility into pricing structures, and constraints on the government’s ability to directly manage performance and enforce service level agreements.”

While Leidos issued an emollient statement that they hoped to remain working with the DHA, this definitive and apparently drastic move indicates DHA unhappiness with the structure and a desire to directly establish relationships with the vendors as sole-source contractors. Unhappily for Leidos, it has affected its market value and how analysts view its future position in the Federal health IT market. Washington Technology (PDF of article), Yahoo Finance  Hat tip to a Reader who wishes to remain anonymous

Major health insurer Centene is offering voluntary buyouts to most employees through a Voluntary Separation Plan (VSP). The insurer currently employs 61,000 people across multiple plans. It is both the largest state Medicaid (12.4 million members) and Affordable Care Act (ACA, 3.5 million members) marketplace provider. But its memberships in both are shrinking. As of March, Medicaid membership was down 4% and ACA membership was down a stunning 54% (2 million members). The latter drop is puzzling, since insurers have exited or cut back on their ACA Marketplace plans, notably Aetna for this year and Cigna after this year.

ACA plans are offered on a state, then county-availability level. 2026 is the first time since 2018 that the average number of insurers participating in the ACA marketplaces has dropped, according to KFF cited in MedCity News. The ACA premium tax credit subsidies expired at the end of 2025, effectively causing premiums to double for nearly everyone. Many members dropped out of exchanges; those who remained were sicker (higher risk) and in lower-level plans that cost less in premiums. Centene also expects that its ACA membership will fall by another 40% by the end of 2026, per their company statement at a Barclays conference in March. CNBC

While Centene has grown membership in other plans, such as employer-sponsored plans and Medicare prescription drug plans (PDP), its total membership has decreased.  Centene currently has almost 26.3 million at-risk members, down from 27.9 million in the prior year, a 6% decline. Yet revenue is projected to remain relatively flat, with a forecast of about $189.5 billion at the midpoint of 2026, a decline of roughly 3% from 2025. Share price has recovered from last year’s nadir by over 50%

According to (paywalled) Bloomberg News (quoted in Insurance Business), “a [Centene] spokesperson did not specify how far Centene intends to shrink its headcount, but said layoffs could follow if the company fails to reach its target through voluntary departures.” In her message to staff last Monday, CEO Sarah London wrote, “When our membership shifts, we need to shift our organization accordingly.” To Healthcare Dive, a spokesperson said that “Centene is positioning the company to lead the future of healthcare — working to deliver a simpler and better experience for our members and partners while meeting the realities of today’s healthcare environment.” 

Now what could that mean? That “shift” in London’s terms requires a repositioning and further reorganizations. Those have not been disclosed or even hinted at–yet.  Certainly, that will be a subject at Centene’s Q2 earnings call in July for investors and shareholders.

In this Editor’s view, rarely does shrinking to profitability work except as an interim strategy to stem losses. Because health plans operate on an annual basis, and enrollment periods start up in the fall, it’s likely that changes won’t be disclosed until then, though internal reorganizations will start to happen. It is hard to operate plans on a ‘bare bones’ basis for long, the nature of the health plan ‘beast’. Lack of service and low customer satisfaction affect vital quality ratings such as STAR (CMS) and HEDIS (NCQA), which influence both CMS payments and plan buyers.

This leads to other alternatives that may be open to Centene. The company could be acquired, broken up, or the larger plans spun off.

  • A full sale presents regulatory and Federal antitrust problems to any plan, and would take a long time for approval both at the state and Federal level. Perhaps longer than Centene can afford.
  • Payers aren’t attractive to private equity except on a hit-and-run basis. Politan Capital, since its major moves to reorganize Centene in 2022-23 after accumulating $900 million in shares, is now down to $70 million.
  • What might be faster: selling off individual or groups of plans to a smaller company such as Molina, or to larger Cigna (once rumored as an acquirer, now divesting whole lines of business), Elevance, or Humana. Centene has always been a ‘family of brands’ such as Wellcare and HealthNet, and the Centene ‘brand’ is nonexistent.

It cannot be emphasized enough that Federal antitrust and the states present significant regulatory barriers on all these alternatives. The plans are what is left to sell. Centene has already sold off most, if not all, of its non-plan management services, such as Magellan and the Collaborative Health Systems ACO/MSO, to generate cash after the Politan Capital-led reorganization.

Another factor: at the state and Federal levels, since ACA, Medicaid. and Medicare Advantage plans are funded and approved by them, eventually the layoffs will attract attention and questions by CMS and state departments of banking and insurance (DOBIs). The VSP may be a way to get around them.

Details for the VSP, eligibility as a % of the workforce, and acceptance goal numbers have not been publicly disclosed. Employee posting sites such as The Layoff and on Reddit indicate that the ‘bonus’ for signing the agreement is an additional four weeks on a package based on your tenure by service years and grade level, plus paid-for COBRA and outplacement. The consensus in the comments is that the information provided to eligible employees is somewhat vague. The word “estimated” is used in terms of the buyout. In addition, ‘eligibility’ apparently does not guarantee that the applicant will be accepted for the VSP (an exit date mentioned is 1 September) nor that an involuntary layoff for a lesser package will take place before then. Recent hires with tenure under two years apparently are not eligible. Opt-out date is 2 July. Unsurprisingly, a third-party administrator has by reports been brought in for this. For employees, another consideration is that accepting a voluntary separation means that in many states, it is treated as ‘quitting’ and you are ineligible for unemployment payment. Most on these boards believe that involuntary layoffs will happen anyway.

It is certainly a difficult decision to make for most people. Best wishes from this Editor to everyone. The impact on healthcare is not going to be subtle, which is why this is discussed at length. (Disclosure: this Editor was briefly a Centene employee after the company she worked for, WellCare Health Plans, was bought by Centene. She is a holder of Centene stock converted from her prior company. The above is strictly her opinion and protected speech, and should not be used as investment advice.)

VA’s EHR goes live with four more centers; GAO criticizes VA, MHS on EHR cybersecurity collaboration

VA stays on schedule with four more EHR go-lives. On 6 June, right on schedule, the Oracle EHR went live at four more VA Medical Centers in Ohio and Kentucky: Cincinnati VA Medical Center, Chillicothe VA Medical Center, Dayton VA Medical Center, and the Cincinnati VA Medical Center-Fort Thomas. All are in VISN 10 (VISN=region). This second wave of 2026 transitions, according to the VA release, more than 107,000 veteran patients and 7,200 VA clinicians and staff. The next wave of three more VAMCs will roll out in August with a final two in October.

Interestingly, the VA release also scores the previous Biden Administration on holding up the EHR implementation for two years, starting after the well-publicized disastrous implementations of 2020-2023. Our Readers and this Editor remember that Congress, led by a Republican House and the Veterans committees (the House approves budgets), basically forced VA to end the deployments [TTA 26 April 2023] and renegotiate the next five years of the Oracle contract to contain performance metrics and requirements [TTA 18 May 2023]. At least some of the reforms noted in the release started under that previous administration, but the second Trump Administration starting in 2025 should be credited with accelerating what many of us observers considered a ‘dead in the water’ repair and rollout. The biggest change is the standardization of the system across the VAMCs; the previous deployments allowed for too much customization by facility, something Oracle wasn’t exactly equipped to handle with the legacy Cerner system.  Federal News Network

There’s also an enjoyable, locally made YouTube video of the go-live at the Dayton VAMC. It focuses on the IT team and how they are helping the clinical staff, including the first new patient entered into the EHR. Complete with an opening group prayer service and dancing–how can they lose? YouTube video, 3 minutes

What’s not going so well is VA-Department of War (DoW formerly DoD) cooperation on EHR cybersecurity issues. A new Government Accountability Office (GAO) report discusses how the Federal Electronic Health Record Modernization office (FEHRM) that is responsible for oversight and direction on joint functions is not adhering to “leading practices” in several areas. The Oracle EHR is not only used at the VA but also in a different version covers the Military Health System (MHS),  the US Coast Guard, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The DoW has the primary responsibility for ensuring cybersecurity of the EHR systems. Where the agency fell short was in defining common goals, outcomes, and performance metrics, as well as communicating progress on EHR cybersecurity and privacy.

FTR:

GAO is making one recommendation to DOD and one to VA to direct the FEHRM to define common goals, outcomes, and associated performance measures, and monitor, assess, and communicate progress on collaboration efforts toward ensuring the cybersecurity and privacy of the federal enclave. DOD disagreed with our report and VA neither agreed nor disagreed with the recommendations. GAO maintains its recommendations are valid, as discussed in this report.

The GAO is required by the Further Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2024 to conduct performance audits; this one covers June 2024 to June 2026. GAO summary with links to full report, Healthcare IT News

Selling Oracle Health’s EHR–what are the potential buyers, their odds, and price?

The speculation is now “official”, since it is by a London investment banking firm, but it confirms this Editor’s earlier view: Oracle, to become an “AI Infrastructure Landlord” (in their apt term), has to sell off what was Cerner and the EHR operation. 

That train is now approaching, though realistically, no one knows when it is due and at what station.

The need: Oracle must reduce the extent of its “liquidity and capital expenditure crisis” in order to stay in the AI Game. Layoffs of 30,000 staff, or 18% of their global employees, is not enough. A fresh financing of $16 billion from the PIMCO bond fund and others cannot relieve the financial stress created by a previous estimated $72 to $100 billion in previous debt load and payments, so significant that banks refused to lend to still-profitable Oracle. And the AI transformation itself is high risk. Oracle owes OpenAI alone $553 billion in remaining performance obligations, and it has obligations to Meta as well. Add to this the long “taffy pull”–the years-long process of building, chip expenditure, then making a data center operational and generating cash. [TTA 14 May, 7 May, and prior; also Ed Zitron’s article for a much longer take.] Take all of them together, and they are polite words for “rock and a hard place” or a Very Dark Corner.

The London investment banking firm Nelson Advisors has taken a deep yet remarkably easy-to-digest analysis on a potential sale. Highlights are below. The paper is one long web page, not a deck of 50 pages. It is well worth your reading time.

Background: Cerner was bought four years ago in the go-go days of June 2022 for $28 billion. Cerner had an aging EHR and a deteriorating market share. Recently it’s plummeted to a 27% market share versus Epic’s 48% in large health systems. Oracle’s interest was not only in health, but also the health data Cerner contained. The plans were to update the software based EHR to a cloud-native data platform as the linchpin of Healthcare Transformation (Ed. note), except that integration proved to be slow and far more expensive than estimated.

Oracle also inherited from Cerner two huge and impossible to escape Federal obligations: the Military Health System EHR and the Veterans Health Administration EHR Modernization, two separate but mandatorily interoperable systems. MHS was the first implemented and is now  completed, but remains an obligation. The VA EHRM, as TTA has chronicled, started rolling out in 2020 and by 2023 was halted after five implementations Due to Disaster. It resumed in April 2026. The VA and Congressional process for funding now has tight guardrails in place on continuance.  

Who will buy the Oracle/Cerner EHR operation is the question. For how much isn’t as clear. Selling Oracle Cerner “represents the most significant “lump sum” of liquidity available. In the Nelson analogy, Oracle took the Cerner cow, milked it of data to feed its data into its LLMs, and no longer wants knackered ol’ Bessie even rejuvenated by the cloud. (In this Editor’s view, Oracle knows it is fighting a losing battle against Epic, which does privately pretty much what it wants and plans to stay that way.)

The obvious group of potential buyers are ‘hyperscalers’ who view health data as the Next Frontier. They already have feet in this healthcare pond. They also meet approved FedRAMP High security requirements for the VA and MHS contracts. Equally, they all have drawbacks.

Microsoft seems the most logical. It already has a huge footprint and expertise within health systems, courtesy of ambient scribe Nuance/DAX Copilot and cloud computing platform Azure.

  • Conflict #1: Epic is a major Azure customer. Would Microsoft be willing to lose this business in a high-stakes move?
  • Conflict #2: FTC would likely challenge the acquisition based on this huge existing footprint.

Amazon is also engaged in healthcare, but not with health systems. It has Amazon Health Services comprising Pharmacy, One Medical, and DTC telehealth services. (Editor’s note: not mentioned by Nelson is that Amazon Health has a new leader, Dr. Roy Schoenberg, with experience in Federal contracts via Amwell for the Defense Health Agency and MHS. This broke late last week.)

  • Conflict: Amazon Web Services is an established vendor in other areas of health systems, and acquiring an EHR could be seen as too much under one roof.
  • Problem: no experience with EHRs (same as Oracle) nor highly regulated health systems. The scale of the MHS/VA implementation and academic hospitals would be a steep learning curve with little existing precedent or credibility in Amazon-World.

Google certainly has the size and resources, and could position the EHR to rival both Microsoft and Epic. 

  • Conflict #1: Cultural. Google moves fast and healthcare slowly.
  • Conflict #2: Lacks the enterprise sales and support needed to service health systems. It doesn’t have a service culture.
  • Editor’s note: Google has tried and failed to be a healthcare giant at least twice. It doesn’t seem to fit.

Nelson also looked at two outliers, UnitedHealth Group/Optum and the hospital groups HCA or CommonSpirit Health. Both would be vertical integrators. Hospital groups do not have the margin nor borrowing power to make the move. UHG and their Optum operation face cash crunches and ongoing Federal scrutiny. (Had this been a few years ago under a different management, this would have been on strategy for UHG.)

Another outlier from the international space is SAP. Their aim would be global expansion into the Middle East and Europe with another asset their enterprise resource planning (ERP) expertise. Their problem? Lack of experience in the highly regulated US environment. In the Nelson view, the US Government could be the make/break for any deal.

The final destination for this ‘hard to sell’ asset? Private equity. And more than one involved. Nelson looked at five PE players in the healthcare space: Thoma Bravo, Francisco Partners, Bain Capital, Blackstone, and New Mountain Capital. (All are familiar PEs to Readers.) Even with their considerable individual assets, it would likely take a consortium to buy Oracle Health in a $20 to $25 billion deal. Nelson rates this as the most likely scenario as long as a consortium could be formed and it can be seen as a turnaround. The drawbacks are a governance structure and the real lack of an exit strategy. (PEs always need exit strategies to keep the funders happy. They are not in it to buy and keep.) The lower price could be made palatable to Oracle if they retained the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) network and the Oracle Autonomous Database revenue streams.

The other partner in this consortium scenario? The Federal Government. It’s a high priority to secure the EHR for both the MHS and VA. Congress is already concerned.

Place your bets!  Hat tip to a Reader who wishes to remain anonymous.

Holiday weekend roundup: VA asks for ‘cyberspeed’ 25% EHR budget bump, update on EHRM fraud indictment; Commure raises $70M; Innovaccer buys Caduceus, lays off staff; Doximity, OpenEvidence slugfest gets hot

A slower news week preceding the Memorial Day holiday in the US and the UK late May bank holiday.

Federal budgets for 2027 are in the Congressional washing machine, and the cycle is on ‘agitate’. VA Secretary Doug Collins has tagged a 25% increase in the EHR Modernization budget for FY 2027 over what is currently in the 2027 Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations bill –$4.2 billion versus $3.4 billion, an increase of $840 million. He testified on Wednesday 20 May to the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee and Thursday 21 May to the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs and Related. Apparently, the biggest problem VA has with the much-repaired and now standardized Oracle EHR is that every VA executive director wants it now, not later. An additionally funded EHRM would speed up the cutover for VA facilities to go from ‘dial-up’ to ‘cyberspeed’ internally, in communicating with other VA hospitals, community care, and in record sharing with the military system and civilian health facilities.

Difficulties reported to date (April for four sites in Michigan, VISN 10) are around transferring health records between VA and Department of War facilities. DoW healthcare also uses Oracle, but a different version suited for their needs that has been fully implemented. 

While the House has already passed the bill at the lower budget number and sent it to the Senate, the subcommittee chair John Carter (R-Texas) during the hearing said they’re “not through with the possibility of getting you some more money”. 

VA’s implementation timeline is 19 before the end of this year (13 new and the 2020-24 six), 26 new sites in 2027 and 28 VA Medical Centers in 2028. Even sped up, there are still 90 more to go and the deployment is not expected to be complete till 2031. FedScoop 21 May, 30 April

Update on the fraud indictment of the former EHRM director, John Windom. Surprisingly, there has been little to no mainstream media coverage of the Federal charges against John Windom, who was indicted on 25 March in the Federal District Court for the District of Columbia. The three counts related to accepting cash and gifts from vendors plus failure to report them could bring a maximum of 35 years. This article on conservative news website PJ Media is the most recent (re)telling of the tale and links to nearly all the same sources this Editor included in our 3 April article. It is more colorful than our reporting but brings up an important point I overlooked: where, oh where, are the indictments of some of the vendors who doled out cash, gifts, and maybe more, and in return got prime and sub-contracts. He knew, they knew to keep quiet–‘loose lips sink ships’. Because any Federal contractor–I worked for two, Viterion Digital Health and Collaborative Health Systems, then part of WellCare Health Plans–receives compliance training on working with their Federal agency counterparts. 

Perhaps there are investigations and indictments to come, as I’ve seen in Federal Medicare fraud cases that peel like an endless onion over years. According to the VA inspector general, Mike Missal, who served from 2016 until January 2025, evidence was being gathered internally back during the Biden administration. This fits the timeline of the US Attorney requesting a grand jury be summoned then sworn in on 30 October 2025. Mr. Missal was fired along with 16 other inspectors general by the incoming Trump administration.

Since Mr. Windom was deeply engaged in the choice of Cerner for the VA EHR in 2017-2018, and in the disastrous implementation of VA Mann-Grandstaff (VISN 20) in October 2020 and four more in 2022, resulting in the rollout’s termination in 2023, Oracle would be unwise to not prepare for a few questions about Cerner’s relationship with Mr. Windom, as I wrote at the time. 

The PJ Media article also references the comprehensive article in the 27 March Spokane Spokesman-Review, which has been on the Cerner/Oracle implementation story since the implementation failure in the region’s Mann-Grandstaff VA facility. Their check of the OEHRM website as of that date confirmed that Mr. Windom was still listed as the deputy director of the Federal Electronic Health Management Office, the joint VA-DOD initiative in the role he assumed in January 2022 after the Mann-Grandstaff problems detonated and the then-Secretary reorganized the department. (Heads did not roll, but they rarely do with SES members). FTA: “The Federal Electronic Health Record Modernization Office did not respond on Thursday (26 March) when asked if Windom remains employed there.” The article by Orion Donovan Smith is a recommended read.

In the funding/M&A department

Healthcare software integrator Commure received a $70 million funding from current investors. Commure’s lead investor is General Catalyst. Commure now has $750 million raised and a $7 billion post-money valuation for its AI infrastructure development. Its subsidiary, Athelas, provides AI-based revenue cycle management and clinical workflow tools. The General Catalyst funding of $200 million plus is an interesting scheme, in that GC fronts the cost of sales and marketing and, in return, receives a share of the revenue from new customers generated by that investment, up to a fixed cap. The new funding will be used for scaling its RCM and practice management platforms, advancing the ‘shared intelligence layer’ beneath Commure’s workflows, and expanding their AI infrastructure into global healthcare markets. Release, Mobihealthnews

Innovaccer acquires CaduceusHealth, a revenue cycle management (RCM) and management services (MSO) provider. Neither transaction cost nor management transitions were disclosed. Well-funded Innovaccer ($675 million through a Series F) has been growing in AI-centric healthcare IT services mainly through acquisition. CaduceusHealth is the fifth in their creating a “comprehensive agentic stack” for health systems and provider groups in their Flow suite. Innovaccer claims to serve over 200 health systems and payers, 95% of community pharmacies, and 80 million patient lives across the US. Release Unfortunately, their growth has been matched by a reduction in staff, with 340 layoffs in the US and India. It is their third layoff in four years as it applies its own AI to automate its own processes. (We are seeing a lot of this across the board, allegedly.) FierceHealthcare

We close with a major Must Read with the OpenEvidence-Doximity battle.

OpenEvidence and Doximity are slugging it out for the same market funding–and a third competitor has just sneaked into the ring. OpenEvidence is the upstart, founded four years ago, and the best valued ($12 billion) yet private healthcare AI company on the planet Earth and is generally thought of as the up-and-coming platform for physician information. Doximity is the mature company, public with a $3.6 billion market cap, proven revenue of $645 million, and (be still my heart) profitable with an EBIDTA margin of 55% and a stunning 49% free cash flow margin. It’s been dubbed ‘LinkedIn for doctors’ but is actually much more with tools for secure telehealth, news, reputation management, and free CME.

They are mutually litigious. Both OpenEvidence (OE) and Doximity tag-team each other in product offerings, use defamation tactics and key staff poaching, and in product development, copycat each other, with Doximity generally leading development and OE following shortly thereafter. Coming up is Doximity’s new product, an in-workflow e-prescribing, prosaically called Doximity Prescribe. Based on the pattern, how long will it be before OE develops a similar product?

Where they make their money is only indirectly from users. Both are supported by a fixed source–pharmaceutical advertising. They both slug it out for physician attention. While doctors love (or hate) both, if they become too similar, the balance will tip. Into this bout steps OpenAI with a new professional product, ChatGPT for Clinicians [TTA 30 April]. Lurking near the ropes is the AI-powered iteration of Wolters Kluwer’s UpToDate peer-reviewed medical content, integrated with Microsoft and Abridge, already in 70% of the largest enterprise health systems because it’s been around forever. OE’s vulnerability may be overpromising in claiming ‘no hallucinations’ of their AI-generated medical content–a claim that is structurally impossible, and results in deficits in completeness, communication quality, and systems-based safety reasoning.

Digging through all of this is the intrepid Sergei Polevikov on his Substack AI Health Uncut. Grab a cuppa and sandwich for this one. For most of the article (Part 1 of 2!), a subscription is required. Consider it money well spent for access to some of the best investigative reporting around with plenty of backup. OpenEvidence Prescribe Coming to Your Doctor’s Office This Month?

A Must-Read potpourri: the ‘math’ of AI data center builds, healthcare AI failures, telehealth in schools, Hippocratic AI’s problems, the loss of empathy.

Your Editor will be Away From The Desk more than a bit over the next two weeks that lead up to the US Memorial Day holiday. I’ve collected seven articles to read and consider over the next few days. Enjoy!

Where Are All The Data Centers?

Author: Ed Zitron.  Self-published on Where’s Your Ed At?

If you’re puzzled about the ‘math’ of data centers–what capacity is available now, what is actually online/operational, and what’s the pipeline like–you will appreciate the detail that Mr. Zitron has gone to in cataloging those and much more. It turns out that we are not in the Land of Math, but in the Land of Myth, ruled by the Great Oz.

Despite what the builders say, and Microsoft’s and Oracle’s ever-cheery press releases, operational data centers are a fraction of what’s needed now or projected. The centers take 18-24 months to build and then many more months to complete–to fit out with chips, cooling, power, and networking that links sites and the end users. The AI giants, despite all the money flowing their way, will run out of money before the operating capacity they need gets online. Every data center takes 18-24 months to build, and even with retrofitting older data centers, the capacity is not there, nor for some time to come. In other words, the cavalry is in a neighboring country, much less the next state. Nobody has yet built an operating 1 GW data center. Centers are in megawatts and that, not many MWs. 

FTA:

  • “Oracle is building 7.1GW of total capacity for OpenAI, and keeps — laughably! — saying 2027 or 2028, when at this rate, Stargate Abilene won’t be done until mid-2027, and the rest either never get finished or are done in 2030 or later.”
  • “This is setting up a horrifying situation where Oracle desperately needs OpenAI to pay it for capacity that doesn’t exist, and if it ever gets built, it’s likely to be years after OpenAI has run out of money, which is the same problem that Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have with their $748 billion of deals with Anthropic and OpenAI, though thanks to the $340 billion or more necessary to build the Stargate data centers, Oracle’s problems are far more existential.”

The article also makes the point that Oracle does not have the fallback businesses that Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have to cushion the blow of AI failure. Oracle has the bottomless pit of Oracle Health, only one part of which is the VA EHR. It has a crushing burden of a massive debt load, the most recent being financed by a large bond fund since banks wouldn’t touch it. It kicked 30,000 employees and their expertise  to the curb. Will Larry Ellison sell a yacht or an island to help finance this as a 40% owner? More in Oracle Steps Back From The Debt Brink and Oracle’s Rock and Hard Place in Abilene

This is one long, well-written, and researched analysis by Mr. Zitron, whose expertise is in PR and is a well-known Silicon Valley critic. 

Telehealth in Schools: Expanding Student Access in a Hybrid Health Care System

Author: Paul Samargedlis. Published on Telehealth.org

Healthcare shortages across the US are affecting K-12 schools and children’s health. School-based telehealth programs can reduce absenteeism, expand access to mental health care, and deliver preventive care, bringing that care to where children already are. School-based telehealth programs in states such as Texas and North Carolina have demonstrated measurable improvements in attendance and emergency department utilization. Much will have to change in coordinating efforts and obtaining funding among school systems, local providers, and governments.

Artificial Intelligence Acquisitions: Agencies Should Collect and Apply Lessons Learned to Improve Future Procurements

Author: Government Accountability Office (GAO) Report to Congressional Requesters. April 2026 (49 pages)

Federal agencies reportedly more than doubled their use of artificial intelligence (AI) from 2023 to 2024, and they used a range of approaches to acquire additional AI capabilities through fiscal year 2025. In April 2025, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued guidance to help agencies acquire AI responsibly, but agencies have not by and large shared that knowledge. This paper attempts to fill this gap in part. GAO identified trade-offs, challenges and benefits. The paper identifies approaches agencies made in acquisition and makes recommendations. The recommendations most impact DOW, DHS, GSA, and the VA.

Top AI Failures in Healthcare

Author: Dmitrii Gorbunov. Published on LinkedIn.

Mr. Gorbunov sums up five costly failures (or about to be failures) where AI has been used in healthcare: physician decision overrides (UnitedHealthcare), claims denials (Cigna), fabrications of consent documents (Sharp Healthcare), and adding diagnostic codes without physician confirmation (Kaiser Permanente). The fifth one, Doctronic, was spoofed by Mindguard to issue triple the dose of Oxycontin [TTA 26 Mar]. The lack of rules, audit and audit trails that can be confirmed and trusted will cost healthcare organizations money and already are having legal consequences.

The next may require subscription to view on Substack

The Architecture of Voice: Why AI Tools Can Mimic Style But Not The Voice

Stuart Miller (Haverin Consulting)’s fourth article on AI’s effect on language and writing. An AI LLM can partly fill two parts of the Competence Framework–Skills and Knowledge–but it does not have Experience. It is incomplete in these three points of Context, and Voice represents the accumulation of Context. FTA: “The dangerous part is the assumption that accelerated Knowledge substitutes for Experience, when in fact accelerated Knowledge, and improved Skills untethered from time, is precisely the recipe for the Builder’s Mirage. The Builder’s Mirage is the illusion of competence, produced without the underlying thing being present.”

Sergei Polevikov’s Substack under AI Health Uncut will require subscription to fully view. His latest are:

Hippocratic AI Fires Its International Sales Team

It’s turning into Theranos 2.0. FTA: “Revenue is an estimated $17–20M ARR. Burn rate is $404M.” Their customers are also their investors. and Hippocratic AI has quietly withdrawn from all of its international markets, terminated every international contract, and let go of the international sales team that built those relationships.Contracts were sold without country language versions, adequate GPU infrastructure, and compliance.

Christina Farr: “Where is all of our empathy? Where did it go?”

Christina Farr is the former CNBC healthcare tech reporter, founder of  Second Opinion Media, and is a funder/advisor in the field. The article is derived from his and Alex Koshykov’s interview for their podcast Digital Health Inside Out (48 minutes, go to YouTube, no paywall). “A no-holds-barred conversation about what’s broken in healthcare media, what’s about to break in digital health, and why she’s not coming back to journalism.”

Until next week….

Oracle steps back from the AI debt brink with $16.3B financing for MI data center, the Project Jupiter ‘clean energy’ experiment in NM, and a major Federal DOW contract

Perhaps the rabbit is being pulled from the top hat. Or it’s hungry. Three recent announcements are giving Oracle shareholders–of which founder Larry Ellison is a 40% holder–some confidence in a volatile market. While ORCL shares are slightly down year-to-date, in the past month since their massive layoff, Mr. Market has boosted them up close to 36% at time of writing, most of the runup in the past week. (Editor’s note: this analysis is meant to be directional and qualitative. It is detached from ‘stock picking’. For your Editor, the interest is in the future of Oracle Health, which is likely collateral damage from All This.)

Oracle is taking on $16 billion debt, this time largely funded by bond fund PIMCO. This funded a single data center campus in Saline Township, Michigan. Total financing announced in late April was $16.3 billion, anchored by PIMCO’s financing $10 billion of the bond tranche plus $2 billion in equity from Related Digital Infrastructure and Blackstone. It’s reported that this is the largest single-facility technology debt package ever assembled. PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Company LLC)  is a bond fund, the largest of its type (active fixed-income), and a subsidiary of Allianz Global Investors. It stepped in because US banks refused for the reasons bulleted below.

What gives pause is the total debt picture that Oracle is taking on to develop data centers for clients–OpenAI primarily, but also Meta. 

  • $72 billion in total debt to finance the Stargate joint venture in Michigan, Texas, Wisconsin, and New Mexico. Other reports have indicated over $100 billion [TTA 10 Mar].
  • The PIMCO debt is structured as a 7.5% coupon with a 19.5-year maturity, with six years of interest-only payments followed by 13 years of amortization
  • Oracle’s long-term debt load has risen nearly 66% since the start of 2025.  Yahoo Finance
  • This is despite a BBB-negative credit outlook from S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s Baa2 Negative outlook (link), a major factor in why banks shied away from further financing.
  • $553 billion in performance obligations with OpenAI 

TNW discusses in a deeper dive the debt structure and why PIMCO could make this bet where banks could not.  The question it raises is whether the furious pace of data center building is another cycle of overbuilding–and if it is, will it be absorbed in time? The ominous parallels: the 2000s building boom in an earlier iteration of data centers, the fiberoptic boom of the early 2000s that broke WorldCom, Global Crossing, Winstar, Corning, and 360Networks, cloud overbuilding that left Amazon Web Services with years of excess capacity (it helps to have a deep-pocketed and not all that transparent parent), and others. This Editor would also liken it to the early years of 1980s-90s airline deregulation (too many airlines, too much debt, too many seats) and about a decade in the cruise ship industry where too many cabins were chasing too few people. These took decades and multiple bankruptcies to settle.

The Project Jupiter New Mexico Stargate data center is turning into an experiment to reduce the environmental/power impact of AI data centers. The alternative energy source for the Doña Ana County data center will come from fuel cells developed by Bloom Energy. The fuel cells have up to 2.45 GW of installed capacity and will replace the usual gas turbines and diesel generators, consolidating power into one single microgrid. How big this ‘microgrid’ will be is not disclosed. The data center campus is being built by a development company, BorderPlex Digital Assets, which is promoting this site as a “Tier 1 industrial engine for New Mexico”. 

Fuel cells generate electricity without combustion through electrochemically combining hydrogen and oxygen, producing water, heat, and electricity. Versus conventional power sources, they reduce nitrogen oxides emissions by approximately 92% and use a “negligible” amount of water. However, the overall picture is not quite that rosy. Other reports indicated that overall greenhouse gases emitted by the data center even with the fuel cell microgrid are estimated at 10 million tons per year, representing ~30% savings over a conventionally powered 14 million tons per year, the latter more than the cities of Las Cruces and Albuquerque. While preliminary construction is taking place, Project Jupiter is still awaiting approval from the New Mexico Environment Department and faces several lawsuits from environmental activists. SourceNM,  Oracle release

A Federal contract to expand the Department of War’s AI capabilities across their classified cloud network. No value attached, and details are naturally on the QT and strictly Hush-Hush, but Oracle’s May Day announcement says in about three ways that the agreement is for advancing AI capabilities as part of the DOW’s AI Acceleration Strategy by “enabling new capabilities across its three core tenets: warfighting, intelligence, and enterprise operations”. (Whew!) From the release: “This agreement accelerates the transformation toward making the United States military an AI-first fighting force and strengthens warfighters’ ability to maintain decision superiority across all domains of warfare.” Oracle release

Also Yahoo Finance

VA’s Oracle EHR resumes go-lives at four Michigan systems–finally

On schedule, the VA’s EHR Modernization resumes after a three-year-plus hiatus. The four VA Medical Centers (VAMCs) announcing their go-lives over this past weekend are all in Michigan’s VISN 10: Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Detroit and Saginaw. Four more are planned for June, also in VISN 10 (a VISN is a VA region): Dayton Ohio, Chillicothe Ohio, Cincinnati, and Cincinnati-Fort Thomas Kentucky, then three more in August and two more in October. Based on the schedule, calendar 2026 will have a total of 13 system rollouts, all in VISN 10 except for the last in October, which will include VISN 20’s Anchorage, Alaska VA Health System. [TTA 8 Feb]

The only exception to the hiatus was a joint Military Health System/VA implementation at Lovell in Chicago, which has had its own bumps after its start in March 2024. VA previously had five disastrous implementations, VA Mann-Grandstaff (VISN 20) in October 2020 and four more in 2022. After many actions to fix them, the VA halted implementations in April 2023. Even in 2025, in its agency report, the VA’s Office of Inspector General in their March 2025 report, and their January 2026 report on VA’s Management and Performance Challenges for FY 2025 found a distinct lack of VA staff confidence in the EHRM and its performance to date [TTA 8 Feb].

Strategically, confining the rollouts to one VISN and a small group at a time is smart because of the geographical adjacency and not scattering efforts all over the US. After these 13 however, there are 157 more. VA has pegged a full completion by 2031.

In its press release announcing the April go-lives, the VA identified four factors that got the EHRM off the dime. FTR: 

  • Fixing hundreds of problems related to the initial rollout of the EHR system at the six original VA sites. Some of these related to efforts by local VA facilities to customize the system, which only complicated the process.
  • Eliminating the bureaucracy that was holding the project back. VA replaced that unwieldy system with a single council that answers to top VA leaders, increasing accountability and making it easier to find and implement common sense decisions.
  • Getting local facilities more involved. As VA’s lead official on the EHR rollout, VA Deputy Secretary Paul Lawrence has visited all 13 deployment sites this year and has engaged directly with facility leaders at each location to answer questions and make sure these sites are ready to go.
  • Hiring more people to ensure the rollout goes smoothly. VA has already hired dozens of staff to help with the rollout in Michigan and other locations and is in the process of hiring a total of 400 people.

Last year, VA terminated contracts for at least six independent contractors supporting the EHRM as part of a mass cleanup of department contracts. FNN

Federal News Network, Healthcare Dive

There is nothing in the release, of course, about Oracle Health’s manpower cuts, rumored to be 30%, nor the persistent talk that the EHR unit will be sold or spun off. Or the effects that the recent indictment of a former EHRM head will have in Congress. In this Editor’s view, Oracle’s corporate redirection to and big bet on AI datacenters strongly suggests that Oracle will not be engaged with this deployment by the time 2031 rolls around.

A study in contrasts: OpenAI raises $122B, eMed’s $200M Series A. Then there’s Avo’s $10M Series A, Stedi’s $50M Series C. And Oracle expands Nashville campus!

Your Editor is feeling a little whipsawed this usually quiet pre-Easter and Passover week. We opened with 30,000 Oracle employees losing their jobs. Yet even if Oracle can’t get it, there’s plenty of money out there that’s looking for an investment home. Some rounds are huge–if it’s AI or GLP-1, you can bet on BIG–but most fundings for startups and early stage companies are modest in a pre-2019 way. The money that’s out there lines up for ‘sure things’.

OpenAI had no problem raising $122 billion as it moves to conquer the AI World (and maybe the Universe) via ChatGPT. Considering their claim that they are generating $2 billion in revenue per month, just replace the millions raised in the earlier digital age with billions. There’s a laundry list of investors including institutions, individual investors via banks, plus exchange-traded funds managed by ARK Invest. The anchor investors are strategic partners Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank, with continued participation from Microsoft. SoftBank co-led the round alongside a16z, D. E. Shaw Ventures, MGX, TPG, and accounts advised by T. Rowe Price Associates. The release notes leadership in consumer AI and growth in enterprise AI; as noted here, in January OpenAI debuted ChatGPT for Healthcare (enterprise) and put into test ChatGPT for Health (consumer).

At a ‘virtual VC conference’ earlier this week, one investor panelist estimated that 14% of venture capital funding in 2025 went to exactly two companies, OpenAI and Anthropic (Claude). That disproportion rings alarm bells to this Editor, who well remembers the ludicrous dot-com boom/bust, and even earlier the insane financing that went into (mostly failed) airlines during deregulation–including the airline she worked for.

Another healthcare segment that hasn’t had much problem raising funds is e-prescribing of GLP-1 drugs. Miami-based eMed raised $200 million in its Series A, bringing its valuation to over $2 billion. Fronted by NFL quarterback legend Tom Brady, recently named founding chief wellness officer who is also an investor, the round was led by earlier investor AON Consulting with the addition of a starry roster of individual investors noted in their brief release. eMed’s eRx is marketed both to individuals and employers; the fresh funding will support further development of its agentic AI platform plus a new capitated model “designed to help employers bend the healthcare cost curve”. This Editor notes the lede in most articles about eMed is Brady and the $2 billion valuation; as our Readers know, the latter is a subjective and oft-inflated estimate of market value especially at this early stage. TTA dug into eMed and some of the company’s interesting history, crossing over into Ali Parsa and Babylon Health, hereReuters, FierceHealthcare, Mobihealthnews

Moving back into reality, Avo, a NYC-based clinical AI information platform, raised a $10 million Series A. Avo’s calling card is bringing together EHR, revenue cycle including payer, patient data, and knowledge bases to streamline use at the point of care. Funders were led by Noro-Moseley Partners, with participation from existing investors AlleyCorp, Las Olas Venture Capital, MedMountain Ventures, Epsilon Health, and new investor Scrub Capital. Avo has a solid roster of customers that include Geisinger, Mass General Brigham, and local providers such as Englewood (NJ) Health. They also have an intriguing feature: an ambient listening copilot that references patient data and generates documentation that improves revenue cycle. Release

Stedi’s Series C is typical in this hard-raise market in both level and number of investors, with a bit of a twist. The $50 million raised brings their total to $142 million, and will be used to expand its product presence and scale infrastructure. Denver-based Stedi’s calling card is an API-first and cloud-native financial clearinghouse that in revenue cycle management sits between healthcare providers and payers (insurers) to process essential transactions like eligibility checks, claims, and electronic payments. The funding was led by by Addition, with participation from Stripe, Ribbit Capital, USV, First Round, BoxGroup, and Bloomberg Beta. There was also a group of angel investors who jumped in, including Tobi Lütke (CEO of Shopify), Guillermo Rauch (CEO of Vercel), and Karim Atiyeh (CTO of Ramp). Finsmes

Since we opened with Oracle, we’ll close with them. Five days before 30,000 employees globally were declared unnecessary, Oracle announced that they leased additional space in Nashville, specifically 116,000 square feet within The Neuhoff District at 1320 Adams Street. Oracle now has 2,000 “seats” across three Nashville locations. The release touts “teams focused on a wide variety of roles, including sales and marketing, cloud engineering, software development, and product management. The company is actively recruiting ambitious thinkers and leaders eager to shape the next generation of cloud infrastructure and AI innovation. ” Perhaps some of those hundreds of folks in KC and other locations can be rehired in Nashville (sic).

The Oracle shoe dropped: Oracle lays off 18%–20-30K–of global employees, in their largest ever layoff (Updated 2 Apr)

A bad wake up this morning for too many people. To absolutely no one’s surprise to close out this month, including Mr. Market (right), Oracle Corporation laid off an estimated 20-30,000 staff globally, or a reported 18% of its 162,000 employees. Emails signed by “Oracle Leadership” went to affected employees as early as 6 AM US Eastern Time.

It is the largest layoff in the company’s history, by a company not shy about rolling layoffs. It was rumored to be this extensive at the top of this month with the departure of five key executives and a TD Cowen analysis [TTA 6 Mar]. As is typical, Oracle stock on the NYSE rose close to 4% as of 1pm ET today.

What we know:

There were no HR calls, no videos, no manager calls, no advance warning, which is the current cold and human-free style one now expects. Many surviving managers up to senior levels weren’t told in advance of team layoffs, based on Reddit postings.

As anticipated, Oracle Health, as part of the RHS area, was hard hit with 30% layoffs, based on press reports and Reddit/The Layoff.

Early reports (to be updated) out of primarily India, where Oracle employs many thousands in IT and development, indicated the layoffs hit hardest in these areas–FTA RollingOut via Times of India:

  • RHS (Revenue and Health Sciences) — employees described a reduction in force of at least 30%, with 16 or more engineers from individual business units cut in a single action. (Editor’s Note: this includes the Oracle Health EHR team which was the former Cerner) 
  • SVOS (SaaS and Virtual Operations Services) — similarly reported a 30% or greater reduction, with manager-level roles included in the sweep.
  • NetSuite’s India Development Centre (IDC) — cuts spanned project management, individual contributor, and manager roles across multiple seniority levels.

The terse email informs employees that “we have made the decision to eliminate your role as part of a broader organizational change. As a result, today is your last working day.” Employees are also instructed to provide their personal email in order to receive FAQs and separation documents to sign off via DocuSign, as their Oracle emails will be deactivated “soon”. They are also warned against downloading any Oracle “confidential information”. Reports indicated that Mac laptops have new tracking software to determine violators, and that access to systems was already disconnected for those released. Full email text is available on Business Insider.

Some employees noted April 3 as their formal last working day, with a one-month “garden leave” period to follow. Based on TheLayoff postings, some in the US have later dates such as June 1. 

Details for India employees indicate that the normal “N+2” severance package of salary paid in months=years of service was offered. Unvested stock (e.g. RSUs) was lost. Those with vested stock still had access via Fidelity.

Many of those laid off in the US are in Kansas City Missouri (the former Cerner HQ), and have 10-20 years with the company. Most dates are before vesting of unvested RSUs. Slack counts indicate at least 10,000 gone, and likely more. Layoffs also took place in Canada and Europe, according to reports.

US labor laws about layoffs are at two levels, Federal and state; the latter varies. To this Editor’s knowledge, no Federally required WARN (Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification) notices nor information under OWBPA (Older Workers Benefit Protection Act, which applies when employees over 40 years old are laid off) have been filed. Federal WARN starts with 50 or more employees 60 days before a plant closing or mass layoff. Many states have their own WARN laws and triggers.

What does this mean?

Oracle has taken on a massive debt load that has halved the stock from last year’s highs. For starters, Oracle took on $58 billion in new debt in just two months. Without exception in these reports, the need for layoffs and restructuring are being laid at the feet of the debt required for an extraordinary and costly change in company direction–from a provider of rapidly eroding SaaS to cloud computing services and AI datacenter contracts. This is  despite a strong Q3 and year projections [TTA 11 Mar] which had some but not enough positive effect. It is not just the debt load dragging down Oracle though–it is the time that these datacenters take to build out, get online, and generate cash flow.

TD Cowen’s report, covered in our 5 February article, nailed this quandary to the max. Oracle has entered into multiple contracts with OpenAI, Meta, and Nvidia. Lenders have doubled their interest rates on these Oracle projects to near non-investment grade levels, Oracle’s credit default swap (CDS) spreads have tripled, and private datacenters for lease are scarce because of limited market financing. Oracle can transfer some of these buildout costs to clients, but takes on risk for the bulk of it. In this Editor’s view, Oracle trapped itself into a classic squeeze. FTA: If the company doesn’t build the datacenters, it risks falling behind its massive strategy to dominate the AI datacenter business. Yet the price of this is to abandon its massive investment in healthcare, a linchpin strategy, and the customers there.

Oracle is in a tight spot without a lot of options other than more unattractive debt that further depresses the stock price. Their buildouts of datacenters, such as Stargate in Abilene, Texas, have been fraught with conflicts–the long ‘taffy pull’ of buildouts versus the annual development of ever more powerful chips that AI clients want before cash flow gets going. The difference in timelines is the killer [TTA 10 Mar]. And I suspect that Nvidia doesn’t take exchanges on their chips, once purchased.

Their largest shareholder with 40% of voting stock, executive chairman/CTO/founder Larry Ellison, still took his dividend. Unlike other founders in the past, he hasn’t mortgaged a yacht, an island, or sold a share to help stake the company in this transformation [TTA 6 Mar]. Instead, he seems to be focused on supporting his son’s Skyhorse media endeavors, the latest being the besting of Netflix in buying Warner Bros. He is also 81. These are factors to investors. Our Readers will recall that in 2022, Michael Neidorff, 25-year CEO of Centene, was forced out at age 79 by an activist shareholder group (Politan Capital, later famous for upending Masimo) that referred to both his age and tenure.

One does wonder how many of the laid off employees had specific skills that would have been useful in changing over to cloud/AI. It’s doubtful that Oracle had any process to evaluate individual competencies or capabilities for future fit. Having gone through a mass layoff when Centene absorbed WellCare Health Plans, this Editor knows first hand that companies do not evaluate individuals–they cut based on category, place, title, compensation, and other factors. Survivors either are in the right place, category, or sprint through internal contacts to another berth. This post on LinkedIn by a company that has created a ‘verification infrastructure’ to do this evaluation, instead of layoffs “based on broad assumptions about job categories rather than verified assessments of individual capability” makes you wonder whether an IT giant like Oracle even considered this approach before spending easily half a billion dollars on ‘restructuring’. 

What are the consequences of fewer people at Oracle Health? This month (April), the massive 13 facility EHRM rollout with the VA begins. And Congress, by this late spring and summer, which is budget time, will be turning the full force of scrutiny on Oracle if it doesn’t go as smooth as 30 momme silk satin. And what will it mean to health system clients and prospects? Where is their reassurance that when an IT person emails or picks up the phone with a problem, that there will be someone at Oracle Health who even knows them? Based on Reddit posts, some employees were doing their onsite support jobs when they got their termination notices and had to leave. “Is anybody there? Does anybody care?” may be the cry of hospital IT managers. That’s not good for sales or account teams…if anyone at Oracle cares about new sales and retentions.

Is Health, once the focus of Oracle’s Big Transformation, now just a used and broken toy? What’s the future of Oracle Health if the strategy is AI 24/7 and EHRs and healthcare system SaaS just do not fit the picture anymore?

Updated 31 March PM: Oracle is not admitting the cuts or the volume of them publicly. CNBC’s sources are stating only that the cuts are ‘in the thousands’. This corresponds to the early reports in Business Insider (link above). This Editor wonders if they ever will beyond a filing with the SEC. Also Wall Street Journal.  One wonders how long they can keep mum to customers and shareholders.

In addition, if WARN notices aren’t filed at locations with 50+ employees and layoffs aren’t delayed for 60 days, expect blowback at the US and state department of labor levels plus class action lawsuits. Oracle may actually sneak under this particular wire with dispersed locations and remote workers. Updated 2 April: A WARN notice was filed in Missouri, home to most of Oracle Health’s employees at the Kansas City campus. 539 employees have been laid off effective 26 May-1 June, which fulfills the 60 day notice requirement. Reportedly they are on payroll but not working. As of now, Oracle will keep the campus open. We previously noted that KC gave Cerner and later Oracle considerable incentives to build that campus. Fox 4 Kansas City

Oracle’s ‘beat the Street with a club’ Q3 performance

Oracle had good news yesterday. Its Q3 2026 closed with strong earnings per share ($1.79 adjusted EPS versus expected $1.70), GAAP adjusted EPS at $1.27, and revenue topping $17.19 billion versus the expected $16.91 billion. All three were up versus prior year by 20% or more for the first time in 15 years. They had $8.9 billion in total cloud revenue, including infrastructure and SaaS, beating analyst estimates of $8.85 billion. Q4 revenue is also expected to grow in the 20% range versus prior year, while EPS in the 17-20% range. Oracle’s Q3 closed 28 February, making for an unusual quarterly structure.

For FY2026, Oracle projects revenue of $67 billion and capital expenditures of $50 billion. FY2027, starting 1 June, is pegged at a stunning $90 billion, again beating industry analysts’ consensus of $86.6 billion. 

In terms of financing and raises, Oracle last month had announced that they intended to raise an additional $50 billion dollars in debt and equity financing. Beyond this, they do not expect to issue any additional bonds in CY2026. There is a substantial backlog of what’s called “Remaining Performance Obligations” that more than quadrupled to $553 billion from a year earlier, but from the release, “Most of the increase in RPO in Q3 related to large scale AI contracts where Oracle does not expect to have to raise any incremental funds to support these contracts as most of the equipment needed is either funded upfront via customer prepayments so Oracle can purchase the GPUs, or the customer buys the GPUs and supplies them to Oracle.”

Overall, it looks like a good year for Oracle as they focus on cloud and AI infrastructure. But the stock, which rose late today by 8-10%, still is beaten down 50% from its high last September. There is still a lot of skepticism by Mr. Market about hyperscaling AI, how fast this can be done, profitably, and specifically about Oracle’s hefty debt burden. 

There is not one word about Oracle Health, either in their release or on reporting this Editor has reviewed about the investor call–or about layoffs which would impact Q4.  Yahoo Finance, CNBC

Oracle’s rock-and-hard place in Abilene TX: building out a data center with Nvidia chips that are already obsolete–and the financing it takes (updated)

Another mystery solved, not looking good for Oracle. In yesterday’s update to pending record layoffs at Oracle, affecting Oracle Health, new reporting mentioned the breakdown of Oracle’s expansion agreement with OpenAI in building out a leased data center for OpenAI in Texas. Additional details have now come to light in reporting by Bloomberg (hat tip to Brody Ford and team), with separate reporting by CNBC.

The overall impression is not a good look for Oracle. This analysis combines both articles from their sources, plus additional background.

  • The location is part of a 1,000 acre site in Abilene. It is not just any datacenter build site. It is the first part of the $500 million Stargate Project, announced last year by the White House–a multi-year, public-private initiative with the objective of creating leading AI infrastructure within the US. The initial equity funders are OpenAI, Oracle, MGX, and SoftBank. OpenAI release 21 Jan 2025
  • Several parts are already built by the developer, Crusoe, and are up and running. But power for much of it won’t be on for another year.
  • Oracle has already filled the Abilene site with servers which are used by OpenAI for training and deployment. These facilities are on track.
  • Oracle, Crusoe, and OpenAI had been discussing since midpoint 2025 about expanding the facility by almost double, from 1.2 to 2 gigawatts of power demand. (See below for explanation of how big a gigawatt is.)

The differences between Oracle and OpenAI, two of the Stargate equity investors, apparently center on timing for opening the expansion site, which won’t be till next year; the use of a now older generation of Nvidia chips; and Oracle’s financing for the site. There are also differences with Crusoe, the developer.

  • Oracle had already committed to the site expansion, ordered the hardware, and already spent billions on construction and staff. The processing power would be based on Nvidia’s Blackwell chips.
  • The problem: Nvidia is now bringing out chips every year. It is already producing its Vera Rubin* chip, unveiled at January’s CES. Vera Rubin delivers five times the inference performance of Blackwell. Inference is critical to AI actually doing a job based on real world data.
  • OpenAI was not happy about being tied to Oracle’s commitment to Blackwell, already a less powerful and capable chip. There was also Oracle’s unhappiness over OpenAI’s often-changing demand forecasting.
  • Crusoe was also unhappy about the current Oracle facility’s downtime for days during the winter, attributed to weather affecting some of the liquid cooling machinery. This points to Oracle’s planning and building leading to reliability problems.

Three part unhappiness=plan cancellation. Meta is considering leasing the expansion site, brought to Crusoe by Nvidia, according to Bloomberg’s sources.

The ‘hard place’ that Oracle is in is this: the construction of data centers and their power sources is a 12 to 24 month taffy pull. At minimum. Things change in that time, like chips. Meanwhile, one ‘rock’ is that computing power for AI, whether Nvidia or AMD, is growing every year. First line AI companies like OpenAI (or Anthropic for that matter) want the latest, because that is critical to their business. Another ‘rock’ that Oracle has is that the datacenters are being financed via at least $100 billion in debt. Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are able to finance datacenter builds via their cash-generating businesses, even if this hyperscaling means that the cash cows become somewhat starved for feed. Oracle has to advance money in construction and equipment it must raise in debt markets for a return that may come in a year, two, or even more. [TTA 5 Feb] In other words, Oracle is in a tight spot compared to competition. The likely solution? Further downsize its businesses and employees to afford the Ellisonian Transformation as noted yesterday. 

The ‘rub’ of course is that what the OpenAIs and Anthropics want–the latest and greatest chip in their datacenters–isn’t possible in the brick-and-mortar world. Not even if you have tremendous cash flow out of your faucets and Blackbeard’s Chest in your bedroom.

Update 10 March: Oracle denies all of the above reporting. Here is Oracle’s reply on X.

Recent media activity about the Abilene site are false and incorrect. First, Crusoe and Oracle are operating in lockstep to deliver one of the world’s largest AI Data centers in Abilene at record-breaking pace. Two buildings are completely operational and the rest of the campus is on track. Second, Oracle has completed leasing for the additional 4.5GW to deliver on our commitments to OpenAI.

Unpacking this, Abilene is already a center for Oracle and OpenAI, as noted above. The expansion was only supposed to be 2 gigawatts, not 4.5, but Oracle and OpenAI have other sites that this could be referring to.

In effect, Larry Ellison, a 40% shareholder of Oracle, should bet the farms, the boats, and Lana’i to make these AI datacenters happen–if he really believes this is the future. Will he? And will they be revenue positive–quickly–to pay off the bet? Mr. Market’s stock price is still stuck on skepticism.

A corollary issue: there is major pushback against datacenters, rising up like daffodils in the early spring, but far less beautiful:

  • Extreme power consumption of datacenters causes rising rates for commercial and residential users. The Crusoe Oracle facility, according to the Bloomberg article, uses about 1.2 gigawatts and was seeking to expand to 2 gigawatts. One gigawatt is equivalent to one nuclear reactor and power to 750,000 homes.
  • Their massive, brutalist landscape footprint. If you like warehouses, you’ll love datacenters filling what used to be fields.
  • Their low employment after they are built, the scale of tax incentives that are being dished out, versus the capital investment required. This article from Futurism reports that one heavily subsidized datacenter facility run by Ark Data Centers in Ohio will employ upon completion exactly 10 people. Yet it is being heavily subsidized by Ohio through a 50%, ten-year sales exemption covering mainly new equipment–estimated to total $4.5 million. That is $450,000 per person over the 10 year span, or $45,000 per year subsidizing generally lower wage jobs in IT and security. One cited analysis, which could be exaggerated, indicated that in Virginia, one datacenter job took 100 times the capital investment for similar jobs in other industries. (Editor’s note: yes, these are single analyses and could be biased, nor factor in cash flow.)

Returning to Oracle, we await another shoe drop today on their earnings, projected layoffs, and their impact on Oracle Health.

*Named after the pioneering American astronomer, known for her work on galaxy rotational rates and the discovery of ‘dark matter’.