Perspectives: Virtual Care, AI, and the Future of Autism Therapy

TTA has an open invitation to industry leaders to contribute to our Perspectives non-promotional opinion and thought leadership area. Today’s topic concerns how technology can increase access to outcomes-based behavioral health care for underserved families, improving the progress and effectiveness of care for those children with autism. Our author, Jeff Beck, LCSW, is the co-founder and CEO of AnswersNow, which provides virtual support based on applied behavior analysis (ABA) therapy. Mr. Beck spent the first 15 years of his career working directly with children in low-income and rural communities.

Recent reporting in The New York Times is just the latest to detail allegations of fraud, abuse, and excessive billing across parts of the autism therapy industry. But this story was especially troubling because of the stories of the children and families caught in the middle. It’s a reminder that the challenges in autism therapy today are human ones with real and urgent consequences. 

At the center of these issues is healthcare’s longstanding fee-for-service reimbursement system, which incentivizes autism providers to bill for therapy hours rather than patient progress. Now, the ongoing surge in autism diagnoses and the continued scarcity of highly trained clinicians have created an even greater opportunity for those same providers to ramp up their billings and lock children into extended cycles of therapy without producing meaningful improvement.

The encouraging news is that technology is changing that calculus.

For years, healthcare leaders have talked about shifting from fee-for-service reimbursement toward outcomes-based care. In autism therapy, that means aligning families, providers, and payers around a holistic goal to help children make progress faster and more efficiently. The challenge has been how to measure outcomes, scale care, and manage costs.

Today, virtual care and artificial intelligence are making all three increasingly achievable.

Virtual Care Solves More Than Access

Telehealth is often described as a convenience. However, in autism therapy, virtual care is creating entirely new ways to deliver higher-quality care.

  1. Virtual care expands access. Traditional autism therapy relies heavily on centralized clinics, forcing families to travel long distances and organize their schedules around available appointments. In many communities, waitlists stretch for months or even more than a year. Virtual therapy removes geography as a barrier and allows families to receive support directly from home.
  2. Virtual care helps solve a workforce problem. The shortage of Board-Certified Behavior Analysts (BCBAs), our industry’s most highly trained therapists, is unlikely to disappear anytime soon. Virtual care allows a BCBA in one location to support families hundreds of miles away, dramatically expanding access without requiring a corresponding increase in the workforce. It also means that, rather than spending large portions of their day supervising less-trained staff, BCBAs can work more directly with children and caregivers. More one-on-one interaction can lead to more personalized care and stronger therapeutic relationships. It also has the added benefit of boosting clinician retention rates. 
  3. Virtual care can improve the therapy experience itself. Children often learn best in environments where they feel comfortable and secure. Sessions conducted in the home allow therapists to work within real-world routines and challenges rather than simulated clinical settings. And for some children, interacting through a screen can even feel more natural and familiar.

AI Makes Better Care More Scalable

AI can be a force multiplier, improving both the efficiency and availability of BCBAs. But it can also be deployed to enhance the therapy experience itself and measure progress over time. 

  1. AI enables more personalized therapy. Historically, creating individualized materials and activities required substantial clinician time. AI can now help therapists generate customized content aligned to a child’s interests, developmental goals, and learning style in real time. That allows clinicians to adapt more quickly and keep sessions engaging and relevant for faster progress by kids.
  2. AI helps reduce administrative burden. Highly trained clinicians routinely spend hours each week documenting sessions, reviewing records, writing notes, and developing care plans. These activities are necessary, but they reduce the time available for direct patient care. AI can take on many of these tasks, returning meaningful time to clinicians. 
  3. AI can improve how providers measure and manage outcomes. It can help identify patterns earlier, track progress more consistently, and support more informed treatment planning. Just as importantly, it generates the data needed to evaluate whether children are actually improving rather than simply accumulating therapy hours.

Of course, security and compliance are non-negotiable in this space, especially given the strict regulations health systems and payers face. The default industry standard should include a “compliance toggle” that allows enterprise partners and families to completely disable AI tools whenever their internal security protocols require it.

Building the Next Generation of Autism Care

Autism therapy is entering a period of necessary scrutiny, and bad actors should be held accountable. But the larger opportunity is to build something better.

  • Providers should view virtual care and AI as more than operational tools. Together, they make it possible to deliver higher-quality care with greater efficiency, personalization, and transparency.
  • More importantly, they create the foundation for a different model of care, one where success is measured by a child’s progress rather than the number of hours billed.

That shift will take time. But providers using technology to expand access, strengthen outcomes, and improve accountability will help define what better autism care looks like for the next generation of children and families.

TTA’s It’s June Too: UK to sunset NHS England, move to Single Patient Record in new bill, VA goes live in 4 VAMCs, VSee reorgs, spotlight on South Korea telehealth/senior support, more!

 

12 June 2026

This week’s Big Story comes from the UK, with the Government’s 2026 Health Bill modernization sunsetting NHS England, pushing more responsibility to local organizations such as ICBs and trusts, and moving to a Single Patient Record. VA goes live at four more Ohio area Medical Centers, gets slapped by GAO (with DoW) on cybersec/privacy cooperation ‘best practices’. Veteran telemed company VSee reorganizes. And we spotlight South Korea’s senior care innovations and foreign visitor telemedicine.

Enjoy your week and weekend!

Please feel free to comment on the articles and pass along this Alert. Let me know if this is worth it to you! Also check out my personal page on Substack.

News roundup: VSee refocuses business, transitions CEO; legacy PERS connectivity problems; South Korea’s AI ‘Talking Buddy’, expands telemedicine to foreign patients; Novellia’s $18M Series A

VA’s EHR goes live with four more centers; GAO criticizes VA, MHS on EHR cybersecurity collaboration

UK News: Health Bill 2026 modernization will abolish NHS England, introduce Single Patient Record, save 20K A&E visits and £20M; IPO launches Knowledge Asset Management Hub

Last Week’s Headlines

Chutes & Ladders: MA sues UHG on Medicaid fraud, Teladoc joins Walmart’s Better Care Services, raises for Signos and H1

Breaking: Anthropic files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO, less than one week after $65B raise. But is this Peak AI?

Selling Oracle Health’s EHR–what are the potential buyers, their odds, and price?

Breaking: Roy Schoenberg moving to Amazon to lead Health Services; Neil Lindsay to depart

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News roundup: VSee refocuses business, transitions CEO; legacy PERS connectivity problems; South Korea’s AI ‘Talking Buddy’, expands telemedicine to foreign patients; Novellia’s $18M Series A

Veteran telemedicine robotics company VSee separates from its Labs subsidiary, moves to a single CEO.  Best known for its acute care telemedicine robots, most recently debuting at HIMSS an AI autonomous robot that navigates by LiDAR [TTA 12 Mar], VSee is now featuring on its website not only the iDoc telehealth platform but also multiple enterprise healthcare tools, such as for revenue cycle management, analytics, staffing optimization, remote monitoring, patient engagement, and more. Its latest move: sell off the VSee Labs subsidiary to now former co-CEO Milton Chen for the return of his ownership in the company–7% of their outstanding stock or 2,870,069 shares, plus making good on any remaining liabilities. At today’s Nasdaq Capital Markets valuation of $0.156, the purchase price was approximately $447,731. The rationale given in the press release was that it eliminated “a non-core and operationally distracting division”, a “strategic reset”, and that the retirement of shares enhanced shareholder value. With Mr. Chen’s departure, Dr. Imoigele Aisiku is now sole CEO and board chairman. VSee shares reached their $17/share peak on 27 May 2024 and fell precipitously from there. Release

Traditional PERS alert units are still a feature of senior housing and private homes. The problem is that many of these older systems, built for wireless 3G systems, don’t work so well anymore. Because wireless companies such as AT&T and Verizon shut down 3G services four years ago, these legacy PERS devices may appear functional but fail to connect to monitoring centers. Another issue is rural cell networks and landlines. The latter are being withdrawn in many areas to internet service, or moving from copper to fiber. Providers need to test their devices on the local 4G LTE cell networks for their customers in those areas to ensure that they work. PERS Insider, Saving Advice

Also noted in PERS Insider is South Korea’s “Talking Buddy”. It is a conversational AI chatbot service developed by Naver Cloud that places wellness calls to seniors. It can remind the client of the usual, such as eating, sleeping, hydration, and medications, but it also can be programmed for post-operative follow up. It can have reasonably interactive chats and in one case, identified a senior in distress, contacting a social worker. It was developed from a fever checker in the pandemic period. In the original New York Times/Japan Times article is a profile of Rowan’s SuperBrain, a tablet-based program designed by neuropsychiatrists that prompts users with early cognitive impairment through a series of brain exercises designed to stimulate memory and association. South Korea is facing a ‘tsunami’ of dementia patients, with an estimated 2 million expected by 2044. The disease carries stigma, especially among highly self-reliant Korean seniors who fear dependence.

South Korea is also expanding telehealth to foreign patients who visit the country for medical procedures. Korea is becoming a desirable destination for medical tourism, with about 2 million annual visitors. The Medical Overseas Expansion Act was amended to include telehealth services for these short-stay patients. These include remote pre-visit consultations and follow-up care at clinic or hospital-level medical institutions, continuous observations, counseling, education, diagnosis, and prescriptions. Healthcare IT News

Novellia garners $18 million Series A. The funding round for the New York-based company was led by Spark Capital with participation from Khosla Ventures, Acrew Capital, Bling Capital, and TMV, bringing Novellia’s total funding to $28 million. Their platform is targeted to patients with serious or chronic conditions, helping them to pull all their data from various health providers, add information, digitize paper records, and overall control their health history. Novellia most recently introduced a mobile app platform. The fresh funding will be used to scale Novellia’s AI-powered technology, adding emerging therapeutic areas such as GLP-1 and cardiometabolic, and the opportunity to share their information with medical researchers. This last feature is another revenue stream for Novellia, which then shares anonymized insights to pharma companies and diagnostics firms for R&D. Release, Mobihealthnews, MedCityNews

VA’s EHR goes live with four more centers; GAO criticizes VA, MHS on EHR cybersecurity collaboration

VA stays on schedule with four more EHR go-lives. On 6 June, right on schedule, the Oracle EHR went live at four more VA Medical Centers in Ohio and Kentucky: Cincinnati VA Medical Center, Chillicothe VA Medical Center, Dayton VA Medical Center, and the Cincinnati VA Medical Center-Fort Thomas. All are in VISN 10 (VISN=region). This second wave of 2026 transitions, according to the VA release, more than 107,000 veteran patients and 7,200 VA clinicians and staff. The next wave of three more VAMCs will roll out in August with a final two in October.

Interestingly, the VA release also scores the previous Biden Administration on holding up the EHR implementation for two years, starting after the well-publicized disastrous implementations of 2020-2023. Our Readers and this Editor remember that Congress, led by a Republican House and the Veterans committees (the House approves budgets), basically forced VA to end the deployments [TTA 26 April 2023] and renegotiate the next five years of the Oracle contract to contain performance metrics and requirements [TTA 18 May 2023]. At least some of the reforms noted in the release started under that previous administration, but the second Trump Administration starting in 2025 should be credited with accelerating what many of us observers considered a ‘dead in the water’ repair and rollout. The biggest change is the standardization of the system across the VAMCs; the previous deployments allowed for too much customization by facility, something Oracle wasn’t exactly equipped to handle with the legacy Cerner system.  Federal News Network

There’s also an enjoyable, locally made YouTube video of the go-live at the Dayton VAMC. It focuses on the IT team and how they are helping the clinical staff, including the first new patient entered into the EHR. Complete with an opening group prayer service and dancing–how can they lose? YouTube video, 3 minutes

What’s not going so well is VA-Department of War (DoW formerly DoD) cooperation on EHR cybersecurity issues. A new Government Accountability Office (GAO) report discusses how the Federal Electronic Health Record Modernization office (FEHRM) that is responsible for oversight and direction on joint functions is not adhering to “leading practices” in several areas. The Oracle EHR is not only used at the VA but also in a different version covers the Military Health System (MHS),  the US Coast Guard, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The DoW has the primary responsibility for ensuring cybersecurity of the EHR systems. Where the agency fell short was in defining common goals, outcomes, and performance metrics, as well as communicating progress on EHR cybersecurity and privacy.

FTR:

GAO is making one recommendation to DOD and one to VA to direct the FEHRM to define common goals, outcomes, and associated performance measures, and monitor, assess, and communicate progress on collaboration efforts toward ensuring the cybersecurity and privacy of the federal enclave. DOD disagreed with our report and VA neither agreed nor disagreed with the recommendations. GAO maintains its recommendations are valid, as discussed in this report.

The GAO is required by the Further Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2024 to conduct performance audits; this one covers June 2024 to June 2026. GAO summary with links to full report, Healthcare IT News

UK News: Health Bill 2026 modernization will abolish NHS England, introduce Single Patient Record, save 20K A&E visits and £20M; IPO launches Knowledge Asset Management Hub

The UK Government proposes a far-reaching bill to modernize the NHS. The Health Bill proposed to Parliament has passed its second reading before the House of Commons and is now in committee. The sponsoring department is the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and applies to England and Wales only. 

The bombshell part frontloaded in the Health Act 2026 (full 200 pages here) is the abolition of NHS England. The intent is to “put power and resources in the hands of frontline NHS organisations by abolishing NHS England and stripping back national bureaucracy”. The organization’s responsibilities would be devolved by the Secretary of State to any one or more of the following, largely at more local levels: 

  • the Secretary of State
  • an integrated care board (ICB)
  • a company formed under section 223 of the National Health Service Act 2006
  • a Special Health Authority
  • an NHS trust
  • an NHS foundation trust
  • a Local Health Board
  • any other public body

Local ICBs would be more numerous and gain more powers, but have more direction from and control by central government, via the DHSC.

The second bombshell is the Single Patient Record (SPR). The SPR would require all GPs, including private providers, and hospitals to share data on patients so that information that is now fragmented can be seen anywhere in England. This would redirect the information to the right doctors, nurses and specialists to securely see a patient’s full medical history. The Government claims this can go through as early as 2024 for maternity and frailty care.

The SPR is the means to create savings at the A&E and GP level. DHSC estimates that the combination of SPRs with virtual care would reduce A&E visits for frail patients by about 10,000 a year plus reduce another 10,000 visits due to fewer misdiagnoses. Other estimated annual savings would be for doctors’ hours–500,000–and 6,000 fewer hospital admissions, totaling £20 million. Patients would also have greater access to their health data including who may access it. It would join up community services with an audit trail to track anyone who accesses the record.

What’s disputed is controlling the data and supervising its security. At present, GPs are the data controllers for their patients’ records. They are permitted to share them with third parties for research purposes.  This would change to the DHSC. The British Medical Association (BMA) opposes this; their GP committee has warned that any move to take control of data away from GPs would damage trust and risk confidentiality.

Other parts of the bill reinforce NHS’ virtual hospital model through the NHS app. NHS Online is scheduled to launch in 2027 for planned specialist care. It’s estimated to provide the equivalent of up to 8.5 million appointments and assessments in its first three years. The other is that there is a “Duty to Promote Innovation” (section 6) by the Secretary of State, including payments and prizes. 

Effects on patient health and safety include the abolition of the independent patient advocate, Healthwatch, with its duties transferred to the ICBs and local councils. The Health Services Safety Investigations Body (HSSIB) will merge into the Care Quality Commission (CQC) regulator.

Effects on other sectors from the PinsentMasons analysis:

  • On private healthcare and outsourced providers, more power will go to the ICBs and the DHSC.  The DHSC will have increased governance control through “the power to be able to cap day-to-day spending limits on NHS Trusts, appoint foundation trust boards, issue directions to ICBs regardless of performance, and may shift care provision between public and private sectors depending on whether or not doing so is in the interest of the NHS.”
  • For life sciences and medtech, the focus on innovation is a major plus. The minus is that there will be more layers and structure to pass through.
  • For health tech and data companies, the interoperability demands and innovation requirements are solid pluses. There will be “clear opportunities in platform, cloud and infrastructure provision, along with integrating AI and analytics systems for operations in clinical and administrative sectors.” Concerns are data governance and management.
  • For social care and adjacent services, this reinforces the trend towards tighter integration. This will include “closer alignment with NHS commissioning structures, opportunities to participate more formally in integrated care pathways, and (sic) having to navigate increased and more centralised regulatory oversight.”

Implementation would be expected to start this year and extend over the next decade. Additional information from the NHS: press release, collection page for the Health Bill, Impact Assessment Summary. The Guardian

The Intellectual Property Office (IPO) launches the Knowledge Asset Management Hub (KAM). The KAM Hub’s purpose is to assist universities and other research organizations in identifying and commercializing their innovations, IP, and other knowledge assets. It was announced at the Knowledge Exchange UK Conference 2026 in Newport, Wales, by IPO Chief Executive Adam Williams. The Hub’s assistance spans four component areas: institutional IP strategy guidance, project-level IP risk and opportunity tools, patent data analysis and IP due diligence resources, and the Knowledge Asset Management Toolkit. UK.gov:  IPO release, KAM Hub document list

TTA’s It’s June: Anthropic’s pending IPO, the AI Hype Curve, Oracle Health for sale, Schoenberg’s move to Amazon, Mass. sues UnitedHealthcare, Signos/H1 raises, more!

Thursday 4 June 2026

This Editor is closing and sending out Alerts a little early this week as off to an event. Most significant this week is Anthropic’s confidential, unpriced IPO filing on top of a $65B raise, a sure mark of Peak AI and the next stages of the Gartner Hype Curve. The other is an analysis of the potential market for a sell-off of Oracle Health’s EHR and what that entails–oddly coinciding with Roy Schoenberg’s move to Amazon Health. More about raises, UHG’s senior MassCare plans accused of fraud, and new Teladoc business. From last week–our Must Reads about the societal impact and the divinity of AI.

Enjoy your week and weekend!

Please feel free to comment on the articles and pass along this Alert. Let me know if this is worth it to you! Also check out my personal page on Substack.

Chutes & Ladders: MA sues UHG on Medicaid fraud, Teladoc joins Walmart’s Better Care Services, raises for Signos and H1

Breaking: Anthropic files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO, less than one week after $65B raise. But is this Peak AI?

Selling Oracle Health’s EHR–what are the potential buyers, their odds, and price?

Breaking: Roy Schoenberg moving to Amazon to lead Health Services; Neil Lindsay to depart

Last Week’s Headlines

Weekend Must Reads on AI: its societal and economic effects, and why its developers see it as replacing God

Short takes: Garner Health’s $100M Series E; Veradigm files financial reports for ’23/’24, moved to net loss; Rovex debuts autonomous in-hospital transport robot

Post-holiday news roundup: Oracle Health acute care EHR market share crumbles to 20%–what that means; retail real estate downsizer marketing Walgreens leases; Oura files for US IPO, Swoop buys NimbleRx

Holiday weekend roundup: VA asks for ‘cyberspeed’ 25% EHR budget bump, update on EHRM fraud indictment; Commure raises $70M; Innovaccer buys Caduceus, lays off staff; Doximity, OpenEvidence slugfest gets hot

 

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donna.cusano@telecareaware.com

Chutes & Ladders: MA sues UHG on Medicaid fraud, Teladoc joins Walmart’s Better Care Services, raises for Signos and H1

It’s another chute for UnitedHealth Group, which hardly needs another. On Friday 29 May, the Massachusetts attorney general sued UnitedHealthcare Community Plans of Massachusetts for misrepresenting and manipulating the health records of members in the MassHealth Senior Care Options (SCO) plans. The objective was to gain higher payments from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The fraudulent amount in question is about $100 million. The lawsuit was filed in Suffolk Superior Court.

UnitedHealthcare is the largest provider of SCO plans in Massachusetts. SCO is a state Medicaid program that covers members 65 or older who live in designated areas of the state. Based on a mandatory in-home clinical assessment to determine their health status, covered members are assigned a level of care based on health conditions, with Level 1 being the least serious, Level 2 having behavioral health or substance use disorders, and Level 3 having the most serious health conditions. The levels have correspondingly escalating levels of payment to the plan.

The Commonwealth is stating that members were classified by UnitedHealthcare to Level 2 despite no other diagnosis or treatment. Other patients were assigned to Level 3 through improper assessments. Moreover, United allegedly knew that beginning in 2018 and continuing into 2019, members were improperly assigned to Level 3. United never disclosed the error nor repaid the higher payments resulting from the assignment. 

From the Office of the Attorney General release, “The AGO alleges that these were intentional failures, the result of a ‘growth at all costs’ strategy employed by United that incentivized and encouraged its field nurses to code MassHealth members as sicker or less able than they were.” UnitedHealthcare responded that the fraud allegations and the lawsuit are “meritless” and that “[The complaint] doesn’t accurately describe our Senior Care Options program, which helps seniors with complex care meet their individual health needs.”  MedCityNews, Healthcare Dive  

A nice ladder for Teladoc is the addition of their telehealth services to Walmart’s digital health offerings. Walmart’s Better Care Services will add Teladoc’s telehealth services in virtual urgent care for common conditions, dermatology, and nutrition for their customers. Payment can be either cash pay at $89/visit or through insurance. Prescriptions, if needed, can be sent to a pharmacy, including Walmart’s, which has same-day delivery  in as fast as an hour available in many locations. Walmart added Teladoc’s BetterHelp mental health services in January. Teladoc release, MedCityNews, Healthcare Dive

And funding ladders continue, indicating some freeing up of investment cash for companies that have gone through a few (or more than a few) rounds.

Glucose monitoring system Signos raised a $20 million round. The investment is from GV (Google Ventures), Dexcom, and Blue Cross Blue Shield of Alabama. Funding to date including this round is $57 million.  Signos is also a partner with Dexcom through their direct-to-consumer continuous glucose monitoring website, Stelo.com. Signos’ app for tracking glucose for weight management is FDA-cleared and includes insights into how behavior, lifestyle, sleep, and stress affect weight. It can also detect low and high glucose levels. Membership is $127/month including two sensors a month on the six-month plan. Mobihealthnews, Yahoo Finance

Healthcare provider data and directory company H1 raised $40 million, led by CVS Health Ventures. Across ten lettered and unlettered rounds, funding to date is $233.9 million. It has developed an AI-powered platform for identifying and engaging the right doctor across life sciences, payers, providers, and patients.  The H1 Doctor Graph platform is a structured representation of physician identity, expertise, relationships, and behavioral signals that identifies and engages the right doctors for critical workflows across pharma, health plan, health system, and technology companies. CVS Health and H1 have collaborated on several projects, including an AI model that improved the accuracy of their health care provider directory. Release, Mobihealthnews

Breaking: Anthropic files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO, less than one week after $65B raise. But is this Peak AI?

It’s raining mega-IPOs. One week after Oura’s filing a confidential S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission for its IPO, massively bigger Anthropic, the developer of Claude AI, has done the same. As with Oura, neither share price nor number of shares has been disclosed in this preliminary filing. Anthropic release

The S-1 filing comes on top of their 28 May announcement of a $65 billion Series H funding led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital. The valuation of $965 billion makes Anthropic the most valuable AI company on Planet Earth and perhaps the entire Solar System, surpassing OpenAI by about $113 billion. Anthropic’s valuation in February was $380 billion with their Series G raise, so the Series H valuation multiplied that by a stunning 2.5 times+ in three months. The new funds will be used for AI research, expanding its computing power for Claude, and scaling its products and partnerships.  CNBC, Mobihealthnews, Anthropic release

Anthropic’s over-the-top valuation was boosted by its projected annual revenue run of $50 billion, tipping into profitability this quarter, beating its own growth metrics regularly, and introducing new Claude products such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Mythos Preview with advanced cybersecurity available to a limited group of companies. Anthropic in January rolled out Claude for Healthcare for providers and consumers. Claude pulled in front in corporate sales, ahead of OpenAI, as of April, and last month inked a new partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb to implement Claude throughout the company.

But are we at Peak AI? Axios, never one to shy away from Cold Buckets of Water when it makes for a good lede, has been trumpeting for the past week that companies are suddenly shying away from their “discovery” of soaring AI costs. Suddenly, ballooning IT costs, uncertain productivity gains, and a strange combination of employee overuse and sudden skepticism are causes for concern. An AI consultant told Axios that employees blew through half a billion dollars in a single month because they didn’t put usage limits on Claude licenses. Then the CEO of an AI software company, CloudBees, admitted that companies are using workforce cuts to offset their soaring AI costs. This has to be one of the worst-kept secrets in corporate America. Even a casual peruser of LinkedIn would have known this a year ago.

Corporate adoption in Axios‘ view is running into four expensive headwinds such as:

  • Using AI to automate disliked tasks rather than prioritizing revenue-generating tasks–which is understandable without guidance and pressure on time.
  • Using AI for trivial tasks such as checking the weather (well, no one said they couldn’t)
  • Leadership is clueless on what AI tools work and are throwing licenses at the employee wall to see what sticks.
  • Reluctance to give AI models proprietary information, which makes the AI tool less effective. (Not feeding AI models proprietary information to prevent it from becoming public in LLM models is, one would believe, an understandable concern.)

Even OpenAI’s Sam Altman commented when Anthropic’s Series H was announced that corporate costs are the most valid concern to date.

Unless there is a massive enterprise pullback in AI spend, though, look to Anthropic floating that IPO no later than the fall, even if corporate AI spend pulls back. It’s to be expected. The Gartner Hype Curve is fully in gear and the momentum from Inflated Expectations to the Trough of Disillusionment will continue, until it is processed and moves on to the Slope of Enlightenment.

Selling Oracle Health’s EHR–what are the potential buyers, their odds, and price?

The speculation is now “official”, since it is by a London investment banking firm, but it confirms this Editor’s earlier view: Oracle, to become an “AI Infrastructure Landlord” (in their apt term), has to sell off what was Cerner and the EHR operation. 

That train is now approaching, though realistically, no one knows when it is due and at what station.

The need: Oracle must reduce the extent of its “liquidity and capital expenditure crisis” in order to stay in the AI Game. Layoffs of 30,000 staff, or 18% of their global employees, is not enough. A fresh financing of $16 billion from the PIMCO bond fund and others cannot relieve the financial stress created by a previous estimated $72 to $100 billion in previous debt load and payments, so significant that banks refused to lend to still-profitable Oracle. And the AI transformation itself is high risk. Oracle owes OpenAI alone $553 billion in remaining performance obligations, and it has obligations to Meta as well. Add to this the long “taffy pull”–the years-long process of building, chip expenditure, then making a data center operational and generating cash. [TTA 14 May, 7 May, and prior; also Ed Zitron’s article for a much longer take.] Take all of them together, and they are polite words for “rock and a hard place” or a Very Dark Corner.

The London investment banking firm Nelson Advisors has taken a deep yet remarkably easy-to-digest analysis on a potential sale. Highlights are below. The paper is one long web page, not a deck of 50 pages. It is well worth your reading time.

Background: Cerner was bought four years ago in the go-go days of June 2022 for $28 billion. Cerner had an aging EHR and a deteriorating market share. Recently it’s plummeted to a 27% market share versus Epic’s 48% in large health systems. Oracle’s interest was not only in health, but also the health data Cerner contained. The plans were to update the software based EHR to a cloud-native data platform as the linchpin of Healthcare Transformation (Ed. note), except that integration proved to be slow and far more expensive than estimated.

Oracle also inherited from Cerner two huge and impossible to escape Federal obligations: the Military Health System EHR and the Veterans Health Administration EHR Modernization, two separate but mandatorily interoperable systems. MHS was the first implemented and is now  completed, but remains an obligation. The VA EHRM, as TTA has chronicled, started rolling out in 2020 and by 2023 was halted after five implementations Due to Disaster. It resumed in April 2026. The VA and Congressional process for funding now has tight guardrails in place on continuance.  

Who will buy the Oracle/Cerner EHR operation is the question. For how much isn’t as clear. Selling Oracle Cerner “represents the most significant “lump sum” of liquidity available. In the Nelson analogy, Oracle took the Cerner cow, milked it of data to feed its data into its LLMs, and no longer wants knackered ol’ Bessie even rejuvenated by the cloud. (In this Editor’s view, Oracle knows it is fighting a losing battle against Epic, which does privately pretty much what it wants and plans to stay that way.)

The obvious group of potential buyers are ‘hyperscalers’ who view health data as the Next Frontier. They already have feet in this healthcare pond. They also meet approved FedRAMP High security requirements for the VA and MHS contracts. Equally, they all have drawbacks.

Microsoft seems the most logical. It already has a huge footprint and expertise within health systems, courtesy of ambient scribe Nuance/DAX Copilot and cloud computing platform Azure.

  • Conflict #1: Epic is a major Azure customer. Would Microsoft be willing to lose this business in a high-stakes move?
  • Conflict #2: FTC would likely challenge the acquisition based on this huge existing footprint.

Amazon is also engaged in healthcare, but not with health systems. It has Amazon Health Services comprising Pharmacy, One Medical, and DTC telehealth services. (Editor’s note: not mentioned by Nelson is that Amazon Health has a new leader, Dr. Roy Schoenberg, with experience in Federal contracts via Amwell for the Defense Health Agency and MHS. This broke late last week.)

  • Conflict: Amazon Web Services is an established vendor in other areas of health systems, and acquiring an EHR could be seen as too much under one roof.
  • Problem: no experience with EHRs (same as Oracle) nor highly regulated health systems. The scale of the MHS/VA implementation and academic hospitals would be a steep learning curve with little existing precedent or credibility in Amazon-World.

Google certainly has the size and resources, and could position the EHR to rival both Microsoft and Epic. 

  • Conflict #1: Cultural. Google moves fast and healthcare slowly.
  • Conflict #2: Lacks the enterprise sales and support needed to service health systems. It doesn’t have a service culture.
  • Editor’s note: Google has tried and failed to be a healthcare giant at least twice. It doesn’t seem to fit.

Nelson also looked at two outliers, UnitedHealth Group/Optum and the hospital groups HCA or CommonSpirit Health. Both would be vertical integrators. Hospital groups do not have the margin nor borrowing power to make the move. UHG and their Optum operation face cash crunches and ongoing Federal scrutiny. (Had this been a few years ago under a different management, this would have been on strategy for UHG.)

Another outlier from the international space is SAP. Their aim would be global expansion into the Middle East and Europe with another asset their enterprise resource planning (ERP) expertise. Their problem? Lack of experience in the highly regulated US environment. In the Nelson view, the US Government could be the make/break for any deal.

The final destination for this ‘hard to sell’ asset? Private equity. And more than one involved. Nelson looked at five PE players in the healthcare space: Thoma Bravo, Francisco Partners, Bain Capital, Blackstone, and New Mountain Capital. (All are familiar PEs to Readers.) Even with their considerable individual assets, it would likely take a consortium to buy Oracle Health in a $20 to $25 billion deal. Nelson rates this as the most likely scenario as long as a consortium could be formed and it can be seen as a turnaround. The drawbacks are a governance structure and the real lack of an exit strategy. (PEs always need exit strategies to keep the funders happy. They are not in it to buy and keep.) The lower price could be made palatable to Oracle if they retained the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) network and the Oracle Autonomous Database revenue streams.

The other partner in this consortium scenario? The Federal Government. It’s a high priority to secure the EHR for both the MHS and VA. Congress is already concerned.

Place your bets!  Hat tip to a Reader who wishes to remain anonymous.