Some final words on Olive AI–what can we learn from its failure? (updated)

“To the extent Olive might have sold something, they didn’t deliver – otherwise they’d still be in business.”–Emily Evans, managing director, Hedgeye Risk Management (quoted in Columbus Business Review)

Seeing this article on how Olive AI ‘ran out of time and money’ in Becker’s Hospital Review, this Editor hoped that it would be a final word, a summing up of what was likened to the seismic equivalent of Theranos’ failure in the health IT and ‘changing healthcare’ space. It wasn’t, but a terse summary of a very long article in Columbus Business Journal–Columbus, Ohio being their headquarters city. 

It’s a decade-long story (2012 as CrossChx to 2023). Up to March 2020, it seemed to be a reasonable narrative of a company and entrepreneur, Sean Lane, who built on his USAF background and founding an earlier successful software business (BTS Software) to transform healthcare through automating routine tasks through what they termed ‘AI’ but was more like software programming coupled with machine learning. With General Catalyst’s $52 million in hand and the encouragement of industry experts, he evangelized, hard, at multiple conferences. Some savvy investors and advisers (Ms. Evans above) saw that Mr. Lane didn’t know much about healthcare even during the ‘throw money at anything health tech’ days of 2020-21. But Olive AI easily gained two more 2020 raises totaling over $330 million, plus the capper in July 2021 of $400 million, for a total of over $850 million.

With the funds, Mr. Lane acquired or developed multiple businesses for Olive including prior authorizations, revenue cycle management, population health, business intelligence, and analytics for surgery. He even put $50 million into designing a Medicaid managed care insurer, Circulo Health, which was sold off in 17 months. The pivots came thick and fast, but the sales didn’t follow and the negative client reviews (KLAS) plus non-renewals started to pile up. Come 2022 with healthcare paying the Pandemic Piper and interest rates inflating, the VC funding spigots turned suddenly to ‘OFF’. The grow-at-any-cost early-stage companies found that when it came to VC funding, as they say in New Jersey, they couldn’t get arrested. So the end, as with Pear, Olive, and Babylon, came quickly. (Cue the tinny piano playing ‘Melancholy Baby’ in a dive bar.)

So for your startup or early stage company… A Guide to Avoiding A Train Wreck.

  • Don’t believe your own press releases, no matter how well written. And make sure your marketing people are seasoned pros who say what you do accurately and have been there, done that. (And when the most seasoned gives the raised eyebrow…ask why.)
  • Don’t constantly bang the gong that your solution/s will transform healthcare (memo to Larry Ellison). Stick to solving client problems and do that well, though you may have to evangelize a little. In the end, create ‘raving fans’. 
  • Don’t go it alone. Create strong supplier alliances where you need them. Then treat your partners and their corresponding account managers well and give them the resources they need.
  • Take the absolute minimum of Other People’s Money, even when it’s being thrown at you and everyone else, including your competitors which you will keep a cynical eye on. Stow cash away in the old fashioned way, in a reputable and not overextended bank, for the rainy days that will come.
  • There are certain investors and ‘thought leaders’ to smile at and run away from. (Two of them are mentioned in the article.) Their track records are dubious or they have their own agendas.
  • Get to positive cash flow as quickly as you can. 
  • Hire well, but not too many. And beware of execs with non-competes. They tie up your legal counsel who may also be keeping an eye on your IP, compliance, and finances.
  • Overdeliver and create happy clients who renew and expand your business–but don’t give away the store doing it
  • If you have to buy another company, don’t buy when the streets look paved with gold. Buy when there is some Type A on the pavement. And when you buy, ensure it makes sense in your business model, the acquisition actually does what they claim, their IP is free and clear, and the company owners aren’t overeager to sell (a clue to hidden problems).
  • Don’t, whatever you do, step on Superman’s cape. Avoid getting into conflicts with big guys like Epic, Oracle, or UnitedHealthcare. Especially don’t say that you will put them out of business. (You won’t.)
  • Know that healthcare, no matter what the conferences say, is an entrenched, over-regulated, risk-averse, and thus extremely slow-moving business. The risk level is high, the reward may be incremental, at best. And the big guys–the payers, big health systems, and their vendors, will always have it all over you.

Updated–Some more advice from different points of view:

“Hope is not a business model”–advice from two VCs, with a bit more advice on basic banking

ViVE post-script: VC panel opines in midst of digital health’s new reality (depression?), and extra ViVE from an attendee

Your thoughts on the above and your real-world examples invited as comments!

Rounding up the week-end: Oracle Cerner layoffs hit 500+ in VA, DoD groups (updated); AWS cash cow stumbles; Transcarent-ViewFi team on virtual MSK; Veradigm delays annual, quarterly reports again; Olive AI sells BI to BurstIQ

Oracle, which already laid off 3,000 since its Cerner acquisition and dumped its real estate, is proceeding with more layoffs in Cerner groups serving the Federal government, specifically DoD and VA. According to the Reddit group r/cernercorporation on this thread, the layoffs hit broadly within the Federal teams: VA and DoD professional services, Federal care delivery, Federal change management, support service owners, and consulting. The number is at least 500 but may be more. The severance package is four weeks plus an additional week for every year of service plus unused vacation with the layoff date 30 June. Offers made to start for new hires have been rescinded. This has fueled speculation that Oracle Cerner may start to wash its hands of the just-renewed VA EHR implementation by outsourcing most of it. There is precedent for this: Cerner partnered with Leidos for the DoD implementation from the start and Oracle Cerner brought in Accenture for training in February. Of course, the all-heart Mr. Market liked the layoff news coupled with Oracle’s Q4 ending 31 May results of net income of $3.32 billion, a rise of 7% versus last year. CNBC  Oracle is now at a $342 billion valuation, a new high. HIStalk 16 June    

Updated 16 June: details remain sketchy but confirmation that layoffs are in the ‘hundreds’ Reuters, Becker’s, KC Business Journal (paywalled); the last posits from CEO Katz’s statement that this is only the first of many to come.   Further details on the Reddit group is that consultants were onsite at clients working on projects and go-lives when they received their layoffs, that 80% of departments were affected, and that the layoff may go over 1,000. 

Amazon Web Services’ business continues to slow, with the AWS cash cow’s growth slowing to half versus last year’s, with further decline expected this quarter. This Editor noted that market analysts at Seeking Alpha called it back in February when we looked at Amazon’s ability to spend cash so freely in healthcare, for example on OneMedical. Google and Microsoft have been tough competitors and while their growth is off too, they are starting with smaller pie slices. Companies are using more than one cloud provider in a ‘belt and suspenders’ approach; Gartner predicts that by 2026, more than 90% of businesses will use multiple providers, from 76% in 2020. AWS’ plans continue to build outside of the US, with a $12 billion investment in cloud infrastructure in India by 2030 as well as five data centers in Oregon due to a controversial $1 billion tax break. Google and Microsoft have also led in generative AI, while AWS has not. AP

Enterprise health navigator Transcarent has made another bid in the virtual health area. It’s a partnership with ViewFi, which helps MSK providers to diagnose and treat MSK injuries in real time. ViewFi providers are affiliated with the NYC-based Hospital for Special Surgery. The idea for ViewFi came from retired tennis champion Andy Roddick who, with his orthopedist Josh Dines, MD turned their bad experiences during the pandemic using FaceTime for virtual consults into a new platform. ViewFi’s platform now takes patients through an intro screener that records physical and mental health, through diagnosis and a recovery care plan with personalized diagnostic tests and exercises with real-time support from their health guides. For Transcarent-contracted companies, a ViewFi initial appointment can be set in as little as two days as opposed to the usual average of 17 days. Transcarent bought the virtual care platform developed by 98point6 in March. FierceHealthcare

We noted back in March and last month that Veradigm (the former Allscripts) had serious problems with their Q4 and FY 2022 reporting due to a software flaw (!) that affected its revenue reporting going back to 2021. Nasdaq has extended for the second time–from 14 June to 18 September–their 2022 annual 10-K filing and their 10-Q for the quarter ending 31 March 2023. Not filing the reports will mean delisting. Seeking Alpha

Olive AI’s reorganization continues [TTA 23 Feb], with data solutions company BurstIQ buying its business intelligence platform.  LifeGraph Intelligence uses AI tools such as natural language processing and machine learning to extract insights from clinical notes and EMR fields. The platform presents cost and clinical data in a meaningful way through cohort comparisons. According to an example on their website, it contributed to $90 million in savings for one health system. Acquisition cost and management transitions were not disclosed. BurstIQ release  Hat tip to HIStalk 16 June

News roundup: UHG closes $5.4B LHC deal, Teladoc’s record $13.7B ’22 loss, Olive AI divesting UM, Cigna exec can’t join CVS, VA anti-suicide program awards, Equiva-Infiniti ACP initiative, Newel Health’s Parkinson’s device

UnitedHealth Group added more home care to its Optum unit with the close of the LHC Group deal on 22 February. Final cost was $5.4 billion or $170 per share of the now-delisted Nasdaq company. The acquisition was announced in March and survived two reviews: a request from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) for additional information which held up the close past the original December date and a shareholder suit on ‘material nondisclosure’ in the SEC filing. FTC requested information on worker pay and ‘vertical harm’ on market competition, but did not proceed with further action prior to the closing. LHC Group serves 960 locations in 37 states, with 30,000 employees and revenue of $2.2 billion last year. The original announcement indicated that the Louisiana-based management team will be coming over to Optum Health and co-founders Keith and Ginger Myers will personally invest $10 million in UHG following the acquisition close. Interestingly, as of today (Thursday noon ET), neither company has announced the closing on their websites. Home Health News, FierceHealthcare  For those into value-based care, as previously noted, Optum is acquiring via LHC Imperium Health, a good-sized ACO, population health, and management services company. It’s another fit as Optum is a major physician group owner, many of whom are also in ACOs, and made LHC even more attractive. According to their website, Imperium now manages 16 ACOs and is in partnership with a large ACO group. 

Unsurprisingly, Teladoc notched a record loss for 2022– $13.7 billion on revenue of $2.4 billion. This included the Q1 2022 $6.6 billion write-off of the Livongo acquisition. On the investor call, company executives scaled down 2023 revenue forecasts to $2.55-$2.68 billion, which is about 9% growth. Teladoc remains at about 80 million members. The company’s ‘balanced growth’ plan to move toward profitability has already resulted in January’s announcement of 6% of staff being laid off and a reduced geographic footprint, presumably including real estate and leases. Healthcare Dive, HISTalk 2/24/23 which also cross-references the MedCityNews Livongo ‘lemon’ interview

Olive AI continues to shrink and juggle, with today’s announcement of their putting their utilization management service line up for sale. Earlier, they announced divesting their population health and 340B service lines to a sister company. The UM line buyer would take on the accounts and the 100-person staff. Olive AI is an automator of routine health system administration tasks such as these. Their pivot will be in automating revenue cycle management for health systems. Last week, Olive announced the release of 215 employees, about 35% of its remaining staff, in addition to its July layoff of 450 employees, then about 33% of staff. If this Editor’s calculations are correct, Olive is down to about 900 or less. Becker’s  Original report in Axios is paywalled, but indicates problems with the software’s efficacy, multiple executive departures, and a previous asset sale.

Yes, Virginia–non-competes ARE enforceable. So Amy Bricker, Cigna’s former head of pharmacy benefits unit Express Scripts, found out when she tried to join CVS as a senior executive as chief product officer for its consumer area, not Caremark which is a direct competitor. She had signed a two-year non-compete/non-disclosure barring her from any employment with any direct competitor. Cigna apparently imposes non-competes on only their most senior executives, a total of 16. This is a temporary restraining order from the US District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri to bar her from joining the company, duration unknown. Cigna had to post a $250,000 bond for possible future damages. FTC (again) is attempting to ban non-compete use both in future and retroactively. Restraining order, Healthcare Finance News, Healthcare Dive

Some blue side up news: 

  • Mission Daybreak Grand Challenge awarded by the VA. 10 companies were awarded $20 million to pursue digital health approaches to prevent veteran suicide as part of a 10-year VA initiative. The first-place winners were Stop Soldier Suicide and Televeda, awarded $3 million each. Healthcare IT News has additional details on all the finalists.
  • Digital health is leveraging an existing $14.2 billion FCC initiative called the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP). Two companies, Equiva Health, a digital patient engagement and health relationship management solution provider, is partnering with internet provider Infiniti Mobile to create Equiva ACP Connect. The product configures tablets and mobile devices for care management and patient education distributed by hospitals, nursing homes, insurers, and other healthcare organizations. Release
  • Newel Health has received a grant from the Michael J. Fox Foundation to further development for Soturi, a digital therapeutic solution for Parkinson’s disease management. Soturi utilizes data collected from a wearable sensor, using an algorithm-based decision-making method, for personalized treatment. The project will be presented at the SINdem conference in Bressanone, Italy on 24th February. Release (PharmaPhorum)

Short takes: Avaya’s Ch. 11; Aetna sells India telehealth; fundings for IncludeHealth, Senniors, Thatch, Previa, MDI; layoffs at Collective Health, Vicarious, Olive AI

Avaya files second Chapter 11 reorganization in six years. The company, which provides virtual care and collaboration tools (and has contributed to our Perspectives series), is restructuring with a financing of $780 million. This was anticipated from August-September last year when they announced accounting problems with their cloud subscription revenue, resulting in substantial layoffs, $250 million in cost cuts, a CEO change, and a continuing crash in the stock value which was close to 99%. In December, they announced a likely delisting from the NYSE. Major creditors include Microsoft, Wistron Corp., and SHI International. Current customers will continue to be served. Upon completion of the restructuring process in a projected 60 to 90 days, Avaya will reduce its total debt by more than 75%, from nearly $3.4 billion to about $800 million. CRN 14 Feb, CRN 7 Sep 22, Yahoo Finance    Hat tip to HISTalk

Aetna’s subsidiary Indian Health Organisation (IHO) is selling its telehealth business to MediBuddy. Transaction cost was not disclosed. Bangalore-based MediBuddy is buying what is currently called vHealth by Aetna and will be rebranded over the next six months to MediBuddy vHealth, to be integrated with its other services. vHealth is a subscription-based primary healthcare service that offers telehealth consultations, an extensive outpatient network, pharmacy, diagnostics, dental services, delivery of medicines, blood tests, and other home healthcare products across 38 Indian cities. IHO employees will continue with MediBuddy. Last February, MediBuddy scored a $125 million Series C funding, led by Quadria Capital and Lightrock India.  Press release (Hospitals Management India), Mobihealthnews

A few early-state digital health fundings rounded up by Mobihealthnews:

  • Ohio-based digital musculoskeletal (MSK) health care and training company IncludeHealth raised $11 million in a funding round led by CincyTech with participation from Tamarind Hill and other investors. The fresh funds will be used to expand the MSK-OS remote care platform. Ray Shealy joined as COO and Grant Koster joins the board of directors. Also Finsmes 
  • Madrid, Spain-based Senniors raised $5.6 million in seed funding. Senniors provides home care services including therapy, mental healthcare, and nutrition counseling for older people and others who need support. The seed round was led by SixThirty with Sevenzonic, KIMPA, Zubi Capital and Invertidos.
  • Thatch, a health benefits startup, raised over $6 million in total funding across pre-seed and seed rounds from 16z and GV, with participation from Lux Capital, Quiet Capital, Not Boring Capital and BrightEdge. It includes a tech-enabled Health Savings Account, a Thatch debit card for all healthcare expenses, and on-demand access to experts who can resolve billing issues via text. Release
  • Previa Medical, based in Lyon, France, raised €2.1 million for its AI-based predictive medical device to alert providers to early signs of sepsis and raised $2.2 million in seed funding. It included participation from Kreaxi, M2care, Veymont Participations, Hopla Memory, CCI Capital Croissance, Holding Seraip, Bpifrance and BNP Paribas, with equity and debt financing from Banque Populaire AURA. SEPSI-SCORE analyzes patient risk factors for sepsis in real time through patient records drawn from hospital software to alert providers up to 48 hours before symptoms develop. Finsmes
  • And one more: $20 million in Series A funding to healthcare analytics company MDI Health. MDI uses AI in pharmacology to prevent negative outcomes in chronic polypharmacy patients and at-risk populations. Mobihealthnews

While layoffs in healthcare have slowed down somewhat, they do continue: 

  • San Mateo-based Collective Health, a benefits administration software provider for enterprises, laid off 54 of an estimated 500-1,000 employees. LinkedIn corporate posting
  • Vicarious Surgical, a robotic surgical developer which has received funding from Bill Gates and BD, is planning to reduce its workforce by 14% to conserve cash. Ironically, they are making a 510(k) submission for a robotic system to compete against giant Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci. Med tech has tightened up substantially with giants like Baxter whacking 3,000 jobs (5%) in its global workforce and Abbott releasing temporary workers hired to produce COVID-19 test kits in Maine. Medtech Dive
  • Olive AI, which automates routine administrative healthcare processes such as revenue cycle management, laid off an additional 215 employees last week, about 35% of its remaining staff, due to account losses. In July, 450 employees or about 33% of staff were released. Axios