TTA’s It’s June: Anthropic’s pending IPO, the AI Hype Curve, Oracle Health for sale, Schoenberg’s move to Amazon, Mass. sues UnitedHealthcare, Signos/H1 raises, more!

Thursday 4 June 2026

This Editor is closing and sending out Alerts a little early this week as off to an event. Most significant this week is Anthropic’s confidential, unpriced IPO filing on top of a $65B raise, a sure mark of Peak AI and the next stages of the Gartner Hype Curve. The other is an analysis of the potential market for a sell-off of Oracle Health’s EHR and what that entails–oddly coinciding with Roy Schoenberg’s move to Amazon Health. More about raises, UHG’s senior MassCare plans accused of fraud, and new Teladoc business. From last week–our Must Reads about the societal impact and the divinity of AI.

Enjoy your week and weekend!

Please feel free to comment on the articles and pass along this Alert. Let me know if this is worth it to you! Also check out my personal page on Substack.

Chutes & Ladders: MA sues UHG on Medicaid fraud, Teladoc joins Walmart’s Better Care Services, raises for Signos and H1

Breaking: Anthropic files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO, less than one week after $65B raise. But is this Peak AI?

Selling Oracle Health’s EHR–what are the potential buyers, their odds, and price?

Breaking: Roy Schoenberg moving to Amazon to lead Health Services; Neil Lindsay to depart

Last Week’s Headlines

Weekend Must Reads on AI: its societal and economic effects, and why its developers see it as replacing God

Short takes: Garner Health’s $100M Series E; Veradigm files financial reports for ’23/’24, moved to net loss; Rovex debuts autonomous in-hospital transport robot

Post-holiday news roundup: Oracle Health acute care EHR market share crumbles to 20%–what that means; retail real estate downsizer marketing Walgreens leases; Oura files for US IPO, Swoop buys NimbleRx

Holiday weekend roundup: VA asks for ‘cyberspeed’ 25% EHR budget bump, update on EHRM fraud indictment; Commure raises $70M; Innovaccer buys Caduceus, lays off staff; Doximity, OpenEvidence slugfest gets hot

 

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Selling Oracle Health’s EHR–what are the potential buyers, their odds, and price?

The speculation is now “official”, since it is by a London investment banking firm, but it confirms this Editor’s earlier view: Oracle, to become an “AI Infrastructure Landlord” (in their apt term), has to sell off what was Cerner and the EHR operation. 

That train is now approaching, though realistically, no one knows when it is due and at what station.

The need: Oracle must reduce the extent of its “liquidity and capital expenditure crisis” in order to stay in the AI Game. Layoffs of 30,000 staff, or 18% of their global employees, is not enough. A fresh financing of $16 billion from the PIMCO bond fund and others cannot relieve the financial stress created by a previous estimated $72 to $100 billion in previous debt load and payments, so significant that banks refused to lend to still-profitable Oracle. And the AI transformation itself is high risk. Oracle owes OpenAI alone $553 billion in remaining performance obligations, and it has obligations to Meta as well. Add to this the long “taffy pull”–the years-long process of building, chip expenditure, then making a data center operational and generating cash. [TTA 14 May, 7 May, and prior; also Ed Zitron’s article for a much longer take.] Take all of them together, and they are polite words for “rock and a hard place” or a Very Dark Corner.

The London investment banking firm Nelson Advisors has taken a deep yet remarkably easy-to-digest analysis on a potential sale. Highlights are below. The paper is one long web page, not a deck of 50 pages. It is well worth your reading time.

Background: Cerner was bought four years ago in the go-go days of June 2022 for $28 billion. Cerner had an aging EHR and a deteriorating market share. Recently it’s plummeted to a 27% market share versus Epic’s 48% in large health systems. Oracle’s interest was not only in health, but also the health data Cerner contained. The plans were to update the software based EHR to a cloud-native data platform as the linchpin of Healthcare Transformation (Ed. note), except that integration proved to be slow and far more expensive than estimated.

Oracle also inherited from Cerner two huge and impossible to escape Federal obligations: the Military Health System EHR and the Veterans Health Administration EHR Modernization, two separate but mandatorily interoperable systems. MHS was the first implemented and is now  completed, but remains an obligation. The VA EHRM, as TTA has chronicled, started rolling out in 2020 and by 2023 was halted after five implementations Due to Disaster. It resumed in April 2026. The VA and Congressional process for funding now has tight guardrails in place on continuance.  

Who will buy the Oracle/Cerner EHR operation is the question. For how much isn’t as clear. Selling Oracle Cerner “represents the most significant “lump sum” of liquidity available. In the Nelson analogy, Oracle took the Cerner cow, milked it of data to feed its data into its LLMs, and no longer wants knackered ol’ Bessie even rejuvenated by the cloud. (In this Editor’s view, Oracle knows it is fighting a losing battle against Epic, which does privately pretty much what it wants and plans to stay that way.)

The obvious group of potential buyers are ‘hyperscalers’ who view health data as the Next Frontier. They already have feet in this healthcare pond. They also meet approved FedRAMP High security requirements for the VA and MHS contracts. Equally, they all have drawbacks.

Microsoft seems the most logical. It already has a huge footprint and expertise within health systems, courtesy of ambient scribe Nuance/DAX Copilot and cloud computing platform Azure.

  • Conflict #1: Epic is a major Azure customer. Would Microsoft be willing to lose this business in a high-stakes move?
  • Conflict #2: FTC would likely challenge the acquisition based on this huge existing footprint.

Amazon is also engaged in healthcare, but not with health systems. It has Amazon Health Services comprising Pharmacy, One Medical, and DTC telehealth services. (Editor’s note: not mentioned by Nelson is that Amazon Health has a new leader, Dr. Roy Schoenberg, with experience in Federal contracts via Amwell for the Defense Health Agency and MHS. This broke late last week.)

  • Conflict: Amazon Web Services is an established vendor in other areas of health systems, and acquiring an EHR could be seen as too much under one roof.
  • Problem: no experience with EHRs (same as Oracle) nor highly regulated health systems. The scale of the MHS/VA implementation and academic hospitals would be a steep learning curve with little existing precedent or credibility in Amazon-World.

Google certainly has the size and resources, and could position the EHR to rival both Microsoft and Epic. 

  • Conflict #1: Cultural. Google moves fast and healthcare slowly.
  • Conflict #2: Lacks the enterprise sales and support needed to service health systems. It doesn’t have a service culture.
  • Editor’s note: Google has tried and failed to be a healthcare giant at least twice. It doesn’t seem to fit.

Nelson also looked at two outliers, UnitedHealth Group/Optum and the hospital groups HCA or CommonSpirit Health. Both would be vertical integrators. Hospital groups do not have the margin nor borrowing power to make the move. UHG and their Optum operation face cash crunches and ongoing Federal scrutiny. (Had this been a few years ago under a different management, this would have been on strategy for UHG.)

Another outlier from the international space is SAP. Their aim would be global expansion into the Middle East and Europe with another asset their enterprise resource planning (ERP) expertise. Their problem? Lack of experience in the highly regulated US environment. In the Nelson view, the US Government could be the make/break for any deal.

The final destination for this ‘hard to sell’ asset? Private equity. And more than one involved. Nelson looked at five PE players in the healthcare space: Thoma Bravo, Francisco Partners, Bain Capital, Blackstone, and New Mountain Capital. (All are familiar PEs to Readers.) Even with their considerable individual assets, it would likely take a consortium to buy Oracle Health in a $20 to $25 billion deal. Nelson rates this as the most likely scenario as long as a consortium could be formed and it can be seen as a turnaround. The drawbacks are a governance structure and the real lack of an exit strategy. (PEs always need exit strategies to keep the funders happy. They are not in it to buy and keep.) The lower price could be made palatable to Oracle if they retained the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) network and the Oracle Autonomous Database revenue streams.

The other partner in this consortium scenario? The Federal Government. It’s a high priority to secure the EHR for both the MHS and VA. Congress is already concerned.

Place your bets!  Hat tip to a Reader who wishes to remain anonymous.

News roundup: CVS sells bswift; Babylon puts Meritage IPA up for sale, financially realigning to prevent delisting; Redesign Health sheds 20%, Noom 10%

Companies shedding ancillary businesses, and more than a few of their people that make them go. 

CVS Health is selling bswift to Francisco Partners. Bswift, a benefits technology and HR services company, was acquired by Aetna in 2014 for $400 million. It became part of CVS Health in 2018 after CVS acquired Aetna. Based on the website, it was operated independently. Francisco Partners, an investment group specializing in tech, recently acquired IBM Watson (now Merative) [TTA 7 July] and added it to 400-odd portfolio companies. Acquisition cost and management transitions were not disclosed, but expected to close by Q4 this year. The company will continue to partner with CVS Health and Aetna. Francisco Partners/bswift release, Mobihealthnews, FierceHealthcare, HealthcareFinanceNews

Babylon Health exiting the provider business, transitioning to US financial reporting requirements, and reversing stock to boost price. Babylon has put on the block Meritage Medical Network, an independent physician association (IPA) based in Northern and Central California with 1,800 providers in six counties serving 90,000 patients. The sale was announced 12 October and is expected to complete in early 2023. Babylon’s rationale is “to focus on its core business model through further investment in its digital-first contracts”. It was a short-lived foray, as Meritage was bought only last year along with First Choice Medical Group [TTA 7 Oct 21], which is not mentioned, and completed prior to their SPAC.

Babylon is also financially realigning.

  • On 12 October they also announced conversion to US financial reporting and GAAP accounting from reporting as a foreign private issuer. This will be effective in January 2023.
  • In September, shareholders approved a reverse share split to take place in Q4 to consolidate shares within the approved range of 15:1 to 25:1. All shares will be converted to Class A ordinary shares from a previous A/B structure.

These address a major problem that threatened Babylon’s listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). In September, Babylon received notice that it violated NYSE rules in not maintaining an average closing share price of at least $1 over 30 consecutive days. Today’s close (12 October) was $0.42. A reverse split will boost the stock price and prevent Babylon from being delisted. Babylon release, Mobihealthnews

After a brief break, healthcare layoffs continue even at richly valued companies with recent raises.

  • Redesign Health is releasing 20% of its workforce, or 67 people from its NYC-based workforce. This is one month after a $65 million Series C raise in late September from General Catalyst, CVS Health Ventures, and other investors, and a valuation in the $1.7 billion range. According to a company spokesperson, these had nothing to do with the Series C or financially driven, but according to the CEO, part of a “ongoing evolution, and given the need to prioritize in a challenging market”. Departments affected in the ‘restructuring’ are engineering, product, marketing, and recruiting. Redesign is unusual in that it creates startups from its own research, assembles management teams, brands, and funds them. To date, it has created about 40, including a few that have had layoffs of their own (Calibrate). Redesign had planned to create more than 25 new companies by the end of 2022, which apparently will not happen. Fast Company, Mobihealthnews
  • The heavily advertised weight loss app Noom reportedly will be laying off 10% of their staff, or 500 people primarily in coaching. Noom currently has a valuation around $3.7 billion and a cumulative funding of $650 million. Apparently there is also a change in direction from the original (and successful) concept of nutrition, behavioral, and exercise coaching via live chat to scheduled video consults as part of a mind and body platform with a higher degree of personalization, including mental health. The company CFO is also departing for TripAdvisor, according to the Wall Street Journal. TechCrunch

Thursday news roundup: IBM Watson Health sale closed, now Merative; OneMedical inviting buyers–maybe; worst healthcare data breaches rounded up

It’s a post-Independence Day and early summer holiday relatively quiet week….

It’s Merative, not IBM Watson Health anymore. Francisco Partners‘ buy from IBM of Watson Health closed last Thursday (30 June) but didn’t make the news until after the holiday. The announcement of the new brand, Merative, was splashed on HLTH’s website today (not HIMSS) with the usual language about how their data connects and transforms health through pioneering “cloud, real-world data and industry-leading AI” through health systems, hospitals, health plans, life sciences, and government. Speaking of data points:

  • HQ now in Ann Arbor, MI
  • New CEO Gerry McCarthy from CEO of eSolutions, a former Francisco Partners portfolio company that exited to Waystar in October 2020
  • The former general manager, Paul Roma, will be a Senior Advisor to Francisco Partners
  • Merative will have six product families: Health Insights; MarketScan; Clinical Development; Social Program Management and Phytel; Micromedex, and Merge Imaging 
  • Other investors include True Wind Capital and Sixth Street

Since 2015, IBM had built up Watson Health through four acquisitions and over $4 billion in investment. They sold it for perhaps $1 billion to get it off their books. Once upon a time they were the leader, now they’re up against Oracle and a dozen other competitors like IQVIA that sell connectedness and ‘actionable insights’ across and in chunks of their business (example, life sciences). Given the track record of the controlling private equity partner, Merative needs to become profitable quickly. Merative will not be a long term investment for them. FierceHealthcare. Our prior coverage: 7 Jan, 22 Jan, 25 Feb (Who needs Watson Health?)

Also apparently up for sale to the right buyer is One Medical. The clinic group flirted with but ultimately sent packing CVS Health. One Medical offers concierge in-person and telehealth primary care in seven metros and has over 700,000 members. They bought Medicare value-based primary care provider group Iora Health a year ago [TTA 11 June] but since then their stock (trading under 1Life Healthcare) and valuation has cracked by 75%. Not mentioned in the Bloomberg article is whether Iora is included in the possible deal.

And for those who like their Hackermania on the Wild Side, there’s a massive list over at Wired that racks up the Greatest Hits. It’s only halfway through 2022, but the data breaching and ransomware perps have multiplied. From Russia/Ukraine to extortion gangs like Conti and Lapsus$ to cryptocurrency theft and China, the Old Reliable Healthcare continues to star. Our recent list is here but topping out the Wired list are Shields Health Care Group, Baptist Health System, Resolute Health Hospital, Kaiser Permanente, and Yuma Regional Medical Center. Also Becker’s.

Sold! IBM Watson Health to Francisco Partners

Another non-surprise, since we knew early in January [TTA 7 Jan] that Watson Health was on the exit side of the IBM ledger. Francisco Partners, a private equity company, is picking up the healthcare and data analytics assets of Watson Health. These include, according to the joint release, “extensive and diverse data sets and products, including Health Insights, MarketScan, Clinical Development, Social Program Management, Micromedex, and imaging software offerings.”

The company will be standalone and the current executive team will continue to serve their clients in the life sciences, provider, imaging, payer and employer, and government health and human services sectors.

Francisco Partners has $30 billion in assets under management and over time has invested in over 400 companies. Their current healthcare companies include GoodRx, ZocDoc, and  TrellisRx. 

Financial terms were not disclosed, but IBM was seeking bids in the $1 billion range. It’s also known that IBM spent well in excess of $4 billion to build the company, was earning about $1 billion in revenue sans profit, so it can be charitably called a fire sale to get it off the IBM books. In any case, barring regulatory glitches, the sale is expected to close in second quarter 2022. Also HealthcareITNews, Becker’s HealthIT, HISTalk