TTA’s wintry roundup: UHG’s stock crash, buys/funding Sword Health, OpenEvidence, more; AI studies indicate caution, dodgy eMed, SVB’s 2025 healthcare investment roundup, Done Global convictions, more!

29 January 2026   Happy New Year!

 

Editor Donna is (mostly) back and here’s a roundup of our articles over the past couple of weeks. News, including the Big Crash of UnitedHealth Group. Some big buys kicking off 2026. A couple of major analyses of AI studies and 2025 healthtech investment. Must Reads too!

Please feel free to comment and pass along. Let me know if this is worth it to you!

Chutes & Ladders: UnitedHealth’s disastrous day and industry portents; Sword Health buys Kaia for $285M and gains German entry, $250M Series D for OpenEvidence, Pomelo’s $92M Series C, NOCD buys Rebound Health

One-two punch: AI moves hard into clinical healthcare and consumer medical with OpenAI/ChatGPT and Claude for Healthcare debuts

AI failing–at present–to lower costs, grow revenue, improve efficiencies. Yet it’s full speed ahead: Deloitte, PwC surveys

Short takes: Owlet’s baby sleep survey, MediBioSense’s Infinity Watch, telehealth extensions move to Senate, EBG’s telemental laws app ’26 update, Done Global indicted with principals convicted

This week’s Must Read: a deep dive on football’s Tom Brady’s involvement with GLP-1 e-Rx eMed

2025 healthcare investment off 12% versus 2024, with AI nearly half: Silicon Valley Bank roundup (updated for Scheffel interview))

From our last Alert: Congratulations to James Batchelor MBE (Well Deserved!)

And a read with even more relevance now: Should free-falling UnitedHealth Group be broken up? Or break itself up to survive, before it becomes another GE? (updated) (See Chutes & Ladders above)

And on a personal note, the 40th anniversary of the Challenger explosion was yesterday. A short and personal remembrance on where I was and what I was doing that day is published here

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2025 healthcare investment off 12% versus 2024, with AI nearly half: Silicon Valley Bank roundup (updated for Scheffel interview))

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), now part of First Citizens Bank, is back with a roundup of the prior year in healthcare investment in the US and EU. 2025 was a year of contractions and skewed investments, what they called “barbells, bookends, and have-nots”, with fewer investors hotly chasing profitability and monetization. 

SVB broke ‘healthcare’ into four sectors: Biopharma, Healthtech, Dx (diagnostics)/Tools, and Device. This Editor’s analysis will concentrate on an overall look plus a deeper dive into Healthtech. SVB also broke out an area cutting across all four, emerging from side conversations into the spotlight. It’s an area where many of us have been laboring in for years–Longevity and Healthspan. (Surprise, surprise!)

Highlights:

  • 2025 total healthcare investment in US and EU totaled $46.8 billion, down 12% versus 2024’s $53.2 billion. European investment remained flat. 2025 still exceeded the dreary days of 2023 that dipped sharply to $41.6 billion. (page 12) Yet adjusting for inflation between the two years, 2025 fell below 2023, which would be today $48 billion (Bureau of Labor Statistics using the Consumer Price Index). 
  • Deal numbers fell 7% in 2025 to an estimated 2,517, versus 2024’s 2,704.
  • AI investments across all four sectors was $22 billion–46%. (pages 2, 5)
  • After Biopharma, Healthtech investments stayed relatively strong as the second largest category, growing from 2024’s $13.2 billion to $13.9 billion. (Note: SVB tracks only investment deals above $2 million)
  • Investments resembled a canyon–plenty in Series A, cratering for Series B and Cs (the have-nots), rising for mega-deals around AI, redefined from the traditional $100 million+ to $300 million+. The higher definition reflects the big capital investments required for AI companies. The report calls it a ‘barbell’ shape–and the plates at both ends are heavy.
  • There are fewer deals as investors seek companies with nearer-term scalability, strong fundamentals, defensibility, and strength of execution. Topping it–less money is available for investment from fewer VCs.
  • Healthtech dominated AI unicorns with valuations above $1 billion: Abridge, OpenEvidence, Innovaccer, and Cera. (page 11)
  • Healthtech saw only seven private M&As and three IPOs (Hinge Health and Omada in the US, 66nao Brain Training in China), versus 2024’s 14 and two respectively. (page 24)
  • Healthtech investments fell off in H2 from a decent pace in H1. Both Series A and later stage companies had generous rounds, though getting there is harder than ever. Page 15 presents a roundup of both the Series A and later stage deals.
  • Investor money raised fell to a decade low–$7 billion versus 2024’s $23 billion. Yet many name investors such as Venrock and General Catalyst closed $100 million healthcare funds, continuing the concentration on money following scale, fundamentals, and monetization versus story and potential. (page 7) 

A ‘must read’ is SVB’s discussion of the Longevity and Healthspan sector on pages 18-21. Finally, finally, the market is seeing the huge need and potential of therapies treating age-related conditions from ability to disease, growing 2.3x in 2025. The sector further concentrates into three areas:

  • Geroscience: R&D into the biology of aging to reverse or mitigate changes. Companies: NewLimit, Altos, Cambrian, Rubedo, Aspen Neuroscience
  • Consumer Healthspan: products for users that analyze everyday behaviors to stay healthy longer. Companies: Function, Viome, Oura, Whoop
  • Intrinsic Capacity Healthtech: apps and tools extending functional everyday abilities. Companies: Neuralink, Sword Health, Hinge Health, Science

Based on early indications of investments and deals, 2026 looks brighter, but still continuing AI and consolidation.

A preview of the report is available with registration here

Updated 20 Jan: Mobihealthnews interviewed Megan Scheffel, who heads up their healthcare and life sciences practice, outside of JPM last week. She reviewed some of the study findings, such as the ‘barbell’ shape of investment (above). M&As are also reviving, looking “pretty” on the mega/later stage side, but on the smaller side perhaps not the “fantastic outcome” founders and investors wanted, but allowing the technology or founders to live to fight another day. This Q&A was telling:

MHN: Do you see any companies eating up other companies just to bury them?

Scheffel: I don’t know if I would say they’re burying them. I keep saying, like, there’s clearance racks.

For companies, SVB operates on two sides: banking and debt. A strategy, according to Ms. Scheffel, that hasn’t changed since before their near-death experience in 2023. She should know as with them for “a gazillion years” prior to that bad time. “We still really want to help companies, even if they’re not raising $300 million rounds every six months. We still are trying to help find ways to support them and support their causes.”

Her advice to companies to succeed: have good management teams and ideas with a “moat”–innovation, IP, and advantages. For investors, the downturns clear out the dead wood (as this Editor predicted after the 2022-3 shocks). To her, times like now are when good investors can make money from better companies.

 

Signs of life: another view on healthcare investments and exits as of mid-year

Silicon Valley Bank and their reports live! Now under the aegis of First Citizens Bank, SVB’s 14th Healthcare Investments & Exits Mid-Year Report for 2024 covers four healthcare areas: biopharma, health tech, DX (diagnosis)/tools, and device. Concentrating on health tech, highlighting their findings which are very different than the other three sectors and mostly in line with H1 findings from Rock Health that this Editor analyzed as possibly a ‘dead cat bounce’:

  • Series A raises are easier than in other sectors, and growing. It is the second-strongest start for Series A health tech investment since 2021. While average valuation sizes are remaining static around $10 million, and deals to date are just under $8 billion.
  • For later-stage companies, their high valuations during the palmy days of 2020-early 2022 created a ‘valuation trap’. The report uses ‘nadir’ to describe it–“now investors (who) are now opening up their coffers for new investments.” (The picture might be less optimistic if one pulled out Transcarent, which is controlled by two investors, General Catalyst and 7wireVentures.) Flat and down rounds are the norm.
  • They term the above ‘price discovery’, defined as the opportunities to extend due diligence, “build conviction” and build the “right syndicate” of investors.(Above all page 14)
  • Investment is accelerating at a rate above the other sectors (page 18). 
  • Exits have cratered at $0.2 billion with only four M&A deals reported. “Companies are preparing themselves to be good public market performers by tuning their cash efficiency and ensuring good unit economics”. Their view is that this may accelerate in H2 2024. (page 21).

SVB is offering the report online as a free preview download. Contact them for the full report.

Figuring out the future for health tech after 2022’s realignments: new SVB study

As Readers who subscribe to our Saturday Alerts (repeated on Wednesday) have seen, this Editor has dubbed this season Realignment Autumn. From the fever pitch of funding, hiring, inflated valuations, SPAC funny money, and unrealistic expectations that started in 2020 and peaked in 2021, we in the industry are now fretting that we can’t get back to 2019 or 2020. Part of the new reality is that telehealth and health tech are far beyond that point in tech integration, ease of use, and takeup by enterprises, but has entered an uncertain business period more than a bit overextended and overexpecting. Unprofitable lines and side businesses, however promising, are being dropped or sold. Talented people who helped to start them are gone. The trend toward consolidation, which started last year, is accelerating.

For a more financial and data-oriented view, Silicon Valley Bank’s latest, “The Future of Healthtech 2022”, does not disappoint. This is a far deeper dive than served up by Rock Health, StartUp Health, and (unless you are a subscriber) CB Insights. This is a US and EU (including UK) view of how investment patterns have shifted, and a look at where investment may be going next year.

So far in 2022 they have seen:

  • Lower valuations and plummeting share value of public companies
  • A shift from ‘growth at all costs’ to a clear value proposition and creation: improving health outcomes, access or affordability.
  • Investments are more modest and at earlier stages–no more blockbuster Series Ds and Es (40% decline in mega-rounds of $100 million+)
  • No IPOs so far
  • Only 18 unicorns formed this year
  • M&A still rising at the right price
  • Companies have to deliver measurable value to continue driving innovation

Through 30 September, SVB tracked investment at $23 billion. Where it’s going:

  1. Provider operations: $7.0 billion–defined as technology that improves efficiency and accuracy of provider-provider, provider-patient interactions
  2. Clinical trial enablement: $6.8 billion
  3. Alternative Care (includes telehealth and mental health): $5.6 billion
  4. Wellness and education: $1.3 billion
  5. Healthcare navigation: $1.3 billion
  6. Medication management: $833 million
  7. Insurance: $117 million

Sections drill down on these sectors and subsectors such as mental health and women’s health, including an analysis of female-founded health tech companies, investors by sector, and a historical view of unicorns. Grab a cuppa and take your time with this one!

Digital health funding’s Q1 hangover from 2021’s bender–and Q2 is a question mark, even for Rock Health

Chug the Pedialyte and pickle juice, down those milk thistle caps for the liver. It’s a morning after quarter that we knew was coming. After 2021’s mighty year for health tech investment, doubling 2020’s, capped by a $29.1 billion total across 729 deals [TTA 29 Jan], the slump we knew would arrive, did. Rock Health’s tracking of 2022’s Q1 proved to be a less than stellar $6.0 billion across 183 deals. It mildly lagged 2021’s Q1 but was still 75% more than 2020’s depressed Q1 at the start of the pandemic.

Even in January, the 2022 projections were iffy. Silicon Valley Bank projected, based on anemic post-IPO performance, that there would be ‘massive consolidation’ and even acquiring companies to hire talent [TTA 14 Jan]. Rock Health and Silicon Valley Bank noted the waning of SPACs as an easy way to IPO for a variety of reasons, including SEC scrutiny. A combination of both was SOC Telemed. which IPO’d via a SPAC at $10, and was taken private seven months later at $3 per share–after trading at $0.64. SOC was not an outlier–larger telehealth brothers Amwell and Teladoc had taken major share price kicks in the head at 50% and more by February [TTA 8 Feb].

The rest of the story is mixed as the economy continues to open up with the pandemic over, but the stock market is wobbly, inflation soars as does a Russia-Ukraine war. 

  • Average deal size was $32.8 million, again below 2021
  • January was a cheerier month than the following two, with companies raising $3.0 billion. Some of this was carryover from 2021 deals that didn’t quite make it past the post. February slumped to $1.4 billion while March ticked up to $1.6 billion, not a good trend going into Q2.
  • Rock Health’s Digital Health Index (RHDHI), a composite of publicly traded digital health securities, fell 38%, far below the S&P 500’s 5% dip over that same time period.
  • SPACs tumbled along with the market, continuing their fall since 2021. Deals were canceled, taken private (SOC Telemed), and companies sued for misleading investors (Talkspace).
  • Late stage deals continued to roll: mega Series D+ deals in Q1 2022 included TigerConnect ($300M), Lyra ($235M), Alto Pharmacy ($200M), Omada Health ($192M), and Ro ($150M). D and above deal size fell by $16 million. But average deal size fell off at every Series, less so for B and C.
  • Lead clinical investment areas were mental health continuing far in the lead, followed by oncology, cardiovascular, and diabetes. Oncology rose from the fifth spot in 2021 to #2 in Q1, displacing cardio. In value proposition, the top three were on-demand healthcare, R&D, and clinical workflow–this up from the 11th spot.

A weak start for 2022, but only compared to 2021. Q2 and maybe even Q3 will be the test in this mid-term election year. Rock Health Q1 report

US/EU 2021 healthcare VC funding soared 65%, but health tech performance slumped 28%–and 2022 surprises

This isn’t the usual Rock Health report of puppies and unicorns. Silicon Valley Bank is a source new to this Editor, but even in topline, the report is pretty bracing. Their coverage is broad and detailed–biopharma, health tech, dx (diagnostic)/tools, and device–on US and European venture capital (VC) funding from 2019 to 2021. There are some warning flags for the health tech sector through their report (summary page; report available for free download here).

What you’d expect: total health care soared in 2021 to over $86 billion–a 65% increase over 2020 (not 30%!). This was led by biopharma at $36.3 billion, then health tech at $28.2 billion. Dx/tools and devices had far more modest funding gains. 

For health tech: 

  • Funding was up 157% versus 2020–42 new ‘unicorns’, four times 2020
  • Provider operations companies comprised a record 35% of total seed/series A funding, up from 20% in 2020. The other hot areas were clinical trial enablement and alternative care. Surprisingly, healthcare navigation was next to last, perhaps indicating that these companies are further along in maturity.
  • Investors were numerous, but high frequency investors were Tiger Global, Andreesen Horowitz, General Catalyst, Casdin, and Gaingels.
  • SPACs slowed in 2021, trying to find the right match before their two-year window to complete a merger and reflecting greater SEC scrutiny of blank checks. Of those who ‘de-SPAC’ed in 2021, Talkspace and Owlet led in market losses, 80% and 73% respectively.
  • Post-IPO performance dropped 28%, led by insurtechs Oscar, Bright Health, and Alignment Health
  • There were 122 M&A deals. The $63 million median value was down 25% from 2020. marking a shift to vertical integrations in care continuums or horizontal to capture consumer bases.

2022 The Year of M&A and Acquire-to-Hire? The end of the report sounds a cautionary note to health tech ‘bulls’. Expect “massive” consolidation. Healthy investment will continue, but the opportunities will be for companies seeking expand product offerings, expand to other markets, or acquire to hire talent (!)–the latter something quite new.

Also FierceHealthcare